Ipsos Swing State Survey (04/23/2020)

Biden leads in close race in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.

The author(s)

  • Chris Jackson Senior Vice President, US, Public Affairs
  • Annaleise Azevedo Lohr Director, US, Public Affairs
Get in touch

Washington, DC, April 23, 2020 — An exclusive Ipsos KnowledgePanel poll shows former Vice President Joe Biden holds a narrow lead over President Trump in Michigan and Pennsylvania. Fewer than half in each state approve of Trump’s overall job performance. A majority also say the healthcare system and the national response to coronavirus are headed in the wrong direction.

Joe Biden has a slight advantage over President Trump in Michigan and Pennsylvania, and is statistically tied in Wisconsin.

  • In Michigan, among registered voters, Biden receives 46% of the vote share compared to 38% who say they would vote for Trump.
  • In Pennsylvania, 46% of registered voters say they would vote for Biden, compared to 40% who say they would vote for Trump.
  • In Wisconsin, Biden receives 43% of the vote share among registered voters, while Trump receives 40% of the vote share.

1


  A majority disapprove of how Trump is handling his job as president in each state. Most approve of their governor’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic.

  • Among registered voters, more than half disapprove of the president’s job performance in each state (56% in Michigan, 52% in Pennsylvania, and 53% in Wisconsin).
  • When considering Trump’s approval rating for his handling of coronavirus, half of registered voters in each state disapprove (55% in Michigan, 50% in Pennsylvania, and 51% in Wisconsin).
  • Two-thirds of registered voters approve of how their state’s governors are handling the coronavirus pandemic (64% in Michigan, 69% in Pennsylvania, and 68% in Wisconsin).

2

 

When it comes to specific national issues, registered voters believe things are headed in the wrong direction.

  • Three in five registered voters in each state believe the healthcare system is headed in the wrong direction (63% in Michigan, 62% in Pennsylvania, and 61% in Wisconsin).
  • About half believe the national response to coronavirus is going in the wrong direction (48% in Michigan, 51% in Pennsylvania, and 50% in Wisconsin), but about two-thirds registered voters believe that the local response is going well (63% in Michigan, 71% in Pennsylvania, and 67% in Wisconsin).  
     

3

​​​​​​

 

About the Study

This survey was conducted April 15th to 20th, 2020 by Ipsos using our probability-based KnowledgePanel®. This poll is based on a probability sample of adults age 18 or older with 642 respondents in Michigan, 654 in Pennsylvania, and 711 in Wisconsin.

The survey was conducted using KnowledgePanel, the largest and most well-established online probability-based panel that is representative of the adult US population. Our recruitment process employs a scientifically developed addressed-based sampling methodology using the latest Delivery Sequence File of the USPS – a database with full coverage of all delivery points in the US. Households invited to join the panel are randomly selected from all available households in the U.S. Persons in the sampled households are invited to join and participate in the panel. Those selected who do not already have internet access are provided a tablet and internet connection at no cost to the panel member. Those who join the panel and who are selected to participate in a survey are sent a unique password-protected log-in used to complete surveys online. As a result of our recruitment and sampling methodologies, samples from KnowledgePanel cover all households regardless of their phone or internet and findings can be reported with a margin of sampling error and projected to the general population.

The data were weighted to adjust for gender, age, race, education, metropolitan status, and household income. Demographic weighting benchmarks came from the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2014-2018 5-year American Community Survey (ACS). Metropolitan status targets came from the 2019 March supplement of the U.S. Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey (CPS).

The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 4.6 percentage points at the 95% confidence level in Michigan, plus or minus 4.8 percentage points at the 95% confidence level in Pennsylvania, and plus or minus 4.8 percentage points at the 95% confidence level in Wisconsin, for results based on the entire sample of adults. The margin of sampling error takes into account the design effect, which is 1.40 in Michigan, 1.56 in Pennsylvania, and 2.10 in Wisconsin. The margin of sampling error is higher and varies for results based on sub-samples. In our reporting of the findings, percentage points are rounded off to the nearest whole number. As a result, percentages in a given table column may total slightly higher or lower than 100%. In questions that permit multiple responses, columns may total substantially more than 100%, depending on the number of different responses offered by each respondent.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Chris Jackson
Vice President, US
Public Affairs
+1 202 420-2025
[email protected]

Kate Silverstein
Media Relations, US
Public Affairs
+1 718 755-8829
[email protected]

About Ipsos

Ipsos is the world’s third largest market research company, present in 90 markets and employing more than 18,000 people.

Our passionately curious research professionals, analysts and scientists have built unique multi-specialist capabilities that provide true understanding and powerful insights into the actions, opinions and motivations of citizens, consumers, patients, customers or employees. We serve more than 5000 clients across the world with 75 business solutions.

Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos is listed on the Euronext Paris since July 1st, 1999. The company is part of the SBF 120 and the Mid-60 index and is eligible for the Deferred Settlement Service (SRD).

ISIN code FR0000073298, Reuters ISOS.PA, Bloomberg IPS:FP

Download

The author(s)

  • Chris Jackson Senior Vice President, US, Public Affairs
  • Annaleise Azevedo Lohr Director, US, Public Affairs

Society