Washington, DC, June 28, 2022 — A new Axios/Ipsos Latino Poll in partnership with Telemundo finds that Latino Americans are equally concerned with gun violence and crime as they are with inflation and supply chain breakdowns. This comes after a mass shooting in Uvalde, Texas where most of the victims were Latino and amidst the strongest bout of inflation the country has seen in a generation. Despite these concerns, the large majority of Latino Americans believe it is a good time to be a Latino in this country and that conditions for them are good.
Looking towards the midterms, Democrats continue to enjoy a substantial advantage over Republicans with American Latinos. However, the margin of the Democratic lead has fallen over the last 6 months. With Latinos viewing Democrats and Republicans as equally suited to handle the main issues of the day – the economy and crime – this equal footing suggests Democrats are failing to capitalize on their advantage with the community. Additionally, fewer Latinos think either party is better on the economy or crime than view the parties as the same or don’t have an opinion. This finding suggests that a large portion of the Latino community is removed from national politics.
1. Following the shooting in Uvalde, crime and gun violence is now the top issue of concern among Latino Americans.
- Forty-four percent are worried about crime or gun violence, up significantly from March (27%).
- Latinos age 65+ (55%) and women (49%) are more worried about crime/gun violence than their counterparts.
- Along these lines, an overwhelming majority of Latinos support requiring background checks to purchase a gun (93%) and ‘red-flag laws’ that would allow police to take guns from people who are determined dangerous by the courts (82%).
- Inflation and supply chain breakdowns (39%, up from 34% in March) are also seen as a major issue amongst Latino Americans. In line with this, Latinos believe the top priority for the government to deal with next is getting prices and the supply chain under control.
- However, amid these concerns, a majority are satisfied with their lives (78%) and believe it is a good time to be a Latino or Hispanic person in America (67%).
- In addition, 39% of Latinos are worried that they or someone they love will be physically attacked because of their race, while a majority (59%) are not worried. Concern about being attacked is much higher among first generation Latinos (47%) and those who only speak Spanish (51%).
2. While Democrats continue to enjoy an advantage with Latino Americans, their lead has fallen over the last six months and could present a problem for the party as the election approaches.
- Twenty-nine percent of Latino Americans say they would vote for a Democratic candidate if the midterm elections were held today, compared to just 17% who say they would vote for a Republican candidate. While this lead is substantial, it represents a 4-point decline from December.
- A large reason why Democrats haven’t been able to fully energize the Latino community is the party’s inability to perform on the current key issues.
- Democrats (18%) and Republicans (19%) are virtually even among Latinos in performing on crime and safety.
- Republicans are seen as better on the economy than Democrats (25% vs. 18%). Rising inflation has likely hurt the Democrats’ standing on the economy, as they held a two-point lead in December 2021 (23% vs. 21% for Republicans).
- However, Latinos are more likely to view both parties the same on these issues, or not have an opinion entirely, indicating how removed large portions of the community are from national politics.
- For instance, one in four (27%) Latinos viewed neither party as being good on crime and public safety, while 15% viewed them as equally good and 18% did not have an opinion.
About the Study
The Axios/Ipsos with Telemundo U.S. Latino Survey Q2, 2022 was conducted June 9th – June 18th, 2022 by Ipsos using our KnowledgePanel®. This poll is based on a nationally representative probability sample of 1,018 Latino/Hispanic adults age 18 or older in the United States.
The survey was conducted using KnowledgePanel, the largest and most well-established online probability-based panel that is representative of the adult US population. Our recruitment process employs an addressed-based sampling methodology using the latest Delivery Sequence File of the USPS – a database with full coverage of all delivery points in the US. Households invited to join the panel are randomly selected from all available households in the U.S. Persons in the sampled households are invited to join and participate in the panel. Those selected who do not already have internet access are provided a tablet and internet connection at no cost to the panel member. Those who join the panel and who are selected to participate in a survey are sent a unique password-protected log-in used to complete surveys online. As a result of our recruitment and sampling methodologies, samples from KnowledgePanel cover all households regardless of their phone or internet status and findings can be reported with a margin of sampling error and projected to the general population.
The study was conducted in both English and Spanish. The data were weighted to adjust for gender by age, education, language proficiency, Latino/Hispanic origin, household income, Census region, metropolitan status, and 2020 vote choice. Demographic benchmarks, among Latino/Hispanic adults age 18+, came from the 2021 Current Population Survey (CPS) with language proficiency from the 2019 American Community Survey (ACS). Benchmarks for 2020 Vote choice among the US Latino/Hispanic population came from Census pot-election survey and Pew 2021 validate voter survey. The weighting variables and categories were as follows:
- Gender (Male, Female) by Age (18–29, 30–44, 45–59, and 60+)
- Education (Less than High School grad, High School grad, Some College/Tech/Associate’s degree, Bachelor’s degree or higher)
- Language Proficiency (English proficient, Bilingual, Spanish proficient)
- Latino/Hispanic origin (Mexican, Puerto Rican, Cuban, Central American, Other)
- Household Income (Under $50,000, $50,000-$99,999, $100,000+)
- Census Region (Northeast, Midwest, South, West)
- Metropolitan status (Metro, non-Metro)
- 2020 Vote choice (Trump, Biden, Other/Did not vote)
The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.8 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, for results based on the entire sample of Latino/Hispanic adults. The margin of sampling error takes into account the design effect, which was 1.52. The margin of sampling error is higher and varies for results based on sub-samples. In our reporting of the findings, percentage points are rounded off to the nearest whole number. As a result, percentages in a given table column may total slightly higher or lower than 100%. In questions that permit multiple responses, columns may total substantially more than 100%, depending on the number of different responses offered by each respondent.
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