Midterm elections did not impact U.S. consumer sentiment
Washington, DC, November 17, 2022 – Americans’ economic sentiment shows little movement this week, as the Ipsos-Forbes Advisor U.S. Consumer Confidence Tracker’s Overall index is at 48.1. The index is down 0.2 point from its previous reading two weeks ago and continues to sit at its second lowest point since the start of the year – more than eight points lower than in early January.
This stability stands out against the backdrop of the midterm elections, in which Democrats maintained control of the Senate while Republicans will take control of the House of Representatives. Interestingly, consumer sentiment among partisans (Democrats and Republicans alike) remains essentially the same as it was just before the election, despite its results.
All sub-indices also show stability, as all declined by less than 1 point from two weeks ago. The Current Index and Investment Index continue to sit at their second lowest points of the year, while the Jobs Index is at its lowest point of the year.
Lastly, Americans report making sacrifices with their typical holiday meals because of inflation. A wide majority of Americans report buying small quantities, or a less expensive brand, or both, of all types of food items: meat/seafood, fresh produce, canned goods, frozen foods, desserts or treats, and pre-prepared foods.
Read the full story from Forbes Advisor here.
Learn more about the Ipsos Global Consumer Confidence Index and sub-indices via the interactive portal, Ipsos Consolidated Economic Indicators (IpsosGlobalIndicators.com) including graphic comparisons, trended data and all the questions on which they are based.
Detailed Findings
1. Reading at 48.1, the latest Overall Consumer Confidence index is down 0.2 point from two weeks ago.
- The Overall Confidence Index is currently 5.2 points below the pandemic average and 12 points below where it stood in early March 2020, prior to the first lockdowns (60.1). The index now sits 4.7 points lower than its 20-year historical average.

2. The Expectations sub-index continues to show stability, having declined just 0.5 point from two weeks ago. It is still sitting below its pandemic and historical averages, as well as its pre-pandemic reading. While it remained above the 60-point mark through all of 2021, it has been below that threshold for more than six months now.
3. Both the Current and Investment sub-indices show little movement this week. However, they are now at their second lowest points of 2022.
- The Current and Investment sub-indices continue to remain significantly lower than they were pre-pandemic, now by 16.6 points and 15.8 points, respectively. The Current sub-index now sits roughly eight points lower than both its pandemic and 20-year historical averages, while the Investment Index is nine points lower than these respective averages.
4. Despite showing stability this week, the Jobs sub-index continues to sit at its lowest point of 2022. While the index does exceed both its pandemic and historical averages (by 1.4 and 2.2 points, respectively), it now sits eight points below its pre-pandemic reading.
- The proportion of Americans who say they are more confident in their job security now compared to six months ago is at 44%, up 1 point from two weeks ago.
- The proportion of Americans reporting they, a family member, or a personal acquaintance lost their job in the past six months due to economic conditions is at 28%, down 1 point from two weeks ago.
- Most notably, 46% say it’s at least somewhat likely that they, a family member, or a personal acquaintance will lose their job in the next six months due to economic conditions, up 5 points from two weeks ago.

5. As Thanksgiving and the holiday season approach, seven in ten Americans plan to buy a smaller quantity, a less expensive brand, or both, when they purchase meat/seafood (70%) and canned goods (70%). A similar pattern is seen for other food categories: desserts or treats (69%), frozen foods (68%), fresh produce (65%), and pre-prepared foods (64%). Lastly, half of Americans aged 21 and older plan to reduce the amount of alcohol they buy or buy a cheaper brand.

6. While purchasing confidence continues to show stability this week, nearly seven in ten remain less comfortable making major purchases, and two in three are less comfortable making other household purchases.
- 31% say they are more comfortable making major household purchases compared to six months ago, unchanged from the previous reading.

- 33% say they are more comfortable making other household purchases compared to six months ago, down 2 points from the previous reading.

Questions
The data used for the Consumer Confidence index and sub-indices is based on the following questions:
1. Now, thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in the US? Is it… very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad?
2. Rate the current state of the economy in your local area using a scale from 1 to 7, where 7 means a very strong economy today and 1 means a very weak economy.
3. Looking ahead six months from now, do you expect the economy in your local area to be much stronger, somewhat stronger, about the same, somewhat weaker, or much weaker than it is now?
4. Rate your current financial situation, using a scale from 1 to 7, where 7 means your personal financial situation is very strong today and 1 means it is very weak
5. Looking ahead six months from now, do you expect your personal financial situation to be much stronger, somewhat stronger, about the same, somewhat weaker, or much weaker than it is now?
6. Compared to 6 months ago, are you NOW more or less comfortable making a major purchase, like a home or car?
7. Compared to 6 months ago, are you NOW more or less comfortable making other household purchases?
8. Compared to 6 months ago, are you NOW more or less confident about job security for yourself, your family and other people you know personally?
9. Compared to 6 months ago, are you NOW more or less confident of your ability to invest in the future, including your ability to save money for your retirement or your children’s education?
10. Thinking of the last 6 months, have you, someone in your family or someone else you know personally lost their job as a result of economic conditions?
11. Now look ahead at the next six months. How likely is it that you, someone in your family or someone else you know personally will lose their job in the next six months as a result of economic conditions?
Additional question:
1. Given that food prices have increased, what changes do you plan to make, if any, on what you buy for Thanksgiving and the holidays this year? For each of the following, do you plan to…
- Meat/seafood
- Fresh produce
- Canned goods
- Frozen foods
- Desserts or treats
- Pre-prepared foods
- Beer, wine, or alcohol
About the Study
These findings are based on data from an Ipsos survey conducted November 14 – 15, 2022 with a sample of 951 adults aged 18-74 from the continental U.S., Alaska, and Hawaii who were interviewed online in English.
The sample was randomly drawn from Ipsos’ online panel, partner online panel sources, and “river” sampling and does not rely on a population frame in the traditional sense. Ipsos uses fixed sample targets, unique to each study, in drawing a sample. After a sample has been obtained from the Ipsos panel, Ipsos calibrates respondent characteristics to be representative of the U.S. Population using standard procedures such as raking-ratio adjustments. The source of these population targets is U.S. Census 2019 American Community Survey data. The sample drawn for this study reflects fixed sample targets on demographics. Post-hoc weights were made to the population characteristics on gender, age, race/ethnicity, region, education, and party identification. Party ID benchmarks are from recent ABC News/Washington Post telephone polls.
Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online non-probability polls. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points for all respondents. Ipsos calculates a design effect (DEFF) for each study based on the variation of the weights, following the formula of Kish (1965). This study had a credibility interval adjusted for design effect. For n=951, DEFF=1.5 and adjusted Confidence Interval=+/-5.4 percentage points.
Findings from March 2010 to early March 2020 are based on data from Refinitiv /Ipsos’ Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI) collected in a monthly survey on Ipsos’ Global Advisor online survey platform with the same questions. For the PCSI survey, Ipsos interviews a total of 1,000+ U.S. adults aged 18-74. The Refinitiv/Ipsos Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI), ongoing since 2010, is a monthly survey of consumer attitudes on the current and future state of local economies, personal finance situations, savings, and confidence to make large investments. The PCSI metrics reported each month consist of a “Primary Index” based on 10 questions available upon request and of several “sub-indices” each based on a subset of these 10 questions. Those sub-indices include a Current Index, an Expectations Index, an Investment Index, and a Jobs Index.
Findings for January 2002- February 2011 are based on data from the RBC CASH Index, a monthly telephone survey of 1,000 U.S. adults aged 18 and older conducted by Ipsos with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points.
For more information on this news release, please contact:
Chris Jackson
Senior Vice President, US
Public Affairs
+1 202 420 2025
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