Trump’s standing with the Republican base
President Donald Trump’s approval ratings among Republicans haven’t moved that much over the past year. Twelve months ago, Republicans were united behind Trump. Today, they are still largely united behind the president.
But under the hood, there are some signs of discontent.
Below are five charts on where Trump stands among Republicans.
1. Trump has lost support but remains strong among Republicans. Trump’s approval has seen a modest decline over the past year, mostly coming from a loss of support among independents. At a topline level, Trump’s standing among Republicans remains strong. However, there is more to this story.
2. How Republicans rate Trump’s handling of their most important issue. Republicans continue to give Trump high marks on immigration and crime, but some Republicans have softened on Trump’s approach to the economy and the cost of living, particularly after the start of the Iran war.
3. There are MAGA Republicans, then there are non-MAGA Republicans. Trump’s approval rating among these two groups tells two entirely different stories. Trump has near-unanimous support among the MAGA base. Outside of it, support drops sharply, with the economy and Iran being particularly sour points.
4. Lower midterm enthusiasm. Republicans are lagging Democrats in enthusiasm towards the midterms. That said, Democrats have their own problems with their party. But remember, midterm elections often come down to enthusiasm and turnout. And right now, Democrats have the advantage.
5. Line in the sand? In Ipsos polling conducted early on in the conflict, just two in five Republicans voiced support for the deployment of ground troops in Iran. Of course, these views are subject to change. Nonetheless, a potential escalation in the conflict, especially if it involves ground troops, could continue to compromise the enthusiasm of Trump’s base.
Trump’s first term showed the bounds of his approval ratings among the nation as a whole: a low ceiling and a high floor. These bounds still hold true today. At the start of his second administration, Trump reached his ceiling. Now, he is roughly at his floor.
Republicans still remain solidly in Trump’s court, largely favoring his approach to immigration and crime. The economy is where Republicans are beginning to show some, albeit limited, doubt.
What comes next? The X-factor is Iran. Trump may not ever fully lose the support of the MAGA base, but an escalation in Iran or enduring high gas prices could continue to compromise Trump’s credibility on the economy, especially among non-MAGA Republicans.
