No way forward
Biden’s approval numbers have been consistently underwater since mid-December, driven by dual disillusionments: the resurgence of COVID and rapidly rising inflation, which now sits at a 40-year high. As our core political tracking data shows, Biden’s mainstay was COVID – his fortunes rose and fell along with how he is perceived to be handling the coronavirus pandemic.
But this time around, even as COVID cases and hospitalizations drop, his overall approval rating hasn’t recovered. This might have to do with the fact that Americans now feel that COVID will be with us for the foreseeable future. As the latest Axios-Ipsos Coronavirus Index tracker tells us, a majority think COVID will not be eradicated this year. What’s more, they are in a clear muddle on how best to move forward.
- Blame game. When asked who is at fault for rising COVID cases in late January, Americans pointed to a range of possibilities – Trump, Biden, the media (conservative and “mainstream”), the universe – but most come around to the unvaccinated. Setting aside the fact that the unvaccinated disagree with the latter point, this is an area of loose national consensus.
- Main pillar. Although Biden is not seen as the primary culprit for the recent trajectory of the virus, Americans are nevertheless unhappy with the way he has handled the crisis so far. The luster is off, and the numbers below clearly show a collapse in public sentiment around Biden’s ability to manage the pandemic – his signature campaign promise. The COVID train has come to an end for Biden.
- Stuck in neutral. Biden’s numbers have as a result weakened over the last few months. This does not bode well for the midterms. Presidents don’t run but their approval numbers are a bellwether of what’s to come. At the moment, it’s not looking good for the Dems.
- No consensus. Few Americans believe that COVID will be eradicated anytime this year. That is the consensus. However, the way forward is much less clear. Decision paralysis has overtaken America. Here public opinion is more likely a lagging and not leading indicator. There is a leadership vacuum (whether real or perceived), making it difficult for Americans to discern what the best way forward is.
- Partisan divide However, look beneath the topline numbers, and it becomes clear that this lack of consensus is largely a function of our polarized society. Look at the data. It is clear. We live in two Americas—one blue and the other red.
Summing up, America is stuck. Is this because of the centripetal force of the virus? Or because we lack strong leadership? Perhaps a mix of both. It is clear that America lacks a shared mental map of where we are now and has no idea about the ultimate destination.
