Cliff’s Take: Is Biden’s House Built on Solid Ground?

Between the vaccine rollout and Trump’s second impeachment trial, Biden’s inauguration already feels like a distant memory. In reality, it’s been less than a month.

Though these are still the early days of the Biden administration, I want to focus on presidential approval ratings in this take – a turn to the nerdy, wonky side of me.  Approval ratings are critical to our understanding of public opinion and gauging the effectiveness of those who govern.

First, as mentioned numerous times here, approval ratings are excellent predictors of election outcomes – both here in the US and around the world.  Strong numbers suggest the sitting government has a good chance of electoral victory; weaker numbers less so. More concretely, an incumbent has a better than 50/50 chance of winning if he or she has an approval rating of 40%; a 90% chance at 50.

Of course, the focus now isn’t on whether Democrats will win the White House again in 2024. Instead, I am most interested in looking to them as an assessment of the present and future effectiveness of a given administration. Strong approval ratings indicate that the administration has a good chance of pushing through their agenda, maintaining discipline within their caucus, and building coalitions - both electoral and legislative.  An important evaluative tool indeed.

 Today, let's slice and dice Biden's approval numbers below.

1. Strong Start.  Biden still holds strong majority support.  Granted, we are only three weeks in but it’s still something given our tribal times.  Can he keep it up? Everything is about COVID right now.  Biden exudes credibility now – but will he as the weeks and months go on?  We will see.  People need to feel we are moving forward, not back.

2. Historical Averages.  President Biden’s numbers are just about average at this point in his administration. Frankly, in today’s world, this is a pretty good place to be. But act fast, Mr. President.  All good things do come to an end—honeymoons included. 

3. Mirror image.  Partisan times; partisan breaks.  Biden undoubtedly has an advantage over Trump at this stage of the game.  It is all about the Independents.  But tribal colors are still a primary determinant of approval.  Look at the data.

4. Biden’s Demographics. Pretty unambiguous. His base falls among the young, minorities, urbanites and the college educated. But he is still strong overall. Again, the data is clear.  Will it last?  We will see.

5. Impeachment Double Take. Everything changes; nothing changes. There is a marginal increase in support for Trump conviction this time around.  But our partisan genetic imprint is still clearly there. Democrats favor impeachment much more, Republicans not at all.

Summing up, Biden’s approval ratings are solid. But balancing a pandemic recovery against our country’s deeply rooted ideological divisions is, well, difficult. His window to act is now – or not at all.  I would say six months at most; more like 100 days.

Finally, we can’t avoid the elephant in the room – Trump’s impeachment trial. Is it a bump in the road or the final metamorphosis of the Republican party? More data on that to come soon.

Be safe, be sane.

For more information, please contact:

Clifford Young
President, U.S.
Public Affairs
+1 202 420-2016
[email protected]

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