Overall U.S. consumer sentiment falls to second lowest point of 2022

Washington, DC, November 3, 2022 – With less than one week until the midterm elections, Americans’ economic sentiment has declined significantly, as the Ipsos-Forbes Advisor U.S. Consumer Confidence Tracker shows its Overall index at 48.3. The index is down 1.2 points from its previous reading two weeks ago and is now at its second lowest point since the start of the year – more than eight points lower than in early January.

The Jobs sub-index, indicative of perceptions about jobs security and the jobs market, declined by more than three points and sits at its lowest level in 15 months.  

The Current sub-index, reflecting consumers’ perceptions of the economic climate and their current purchasing, jobs, and investment confidence, further declined by more than a point from two weeks ago and now sits more than 11 points lower than it did to begin the year. Americans’ purchasing confidence continues to remain muted, as nearly seven in ten are less comfortable making major purchases, and nearly two in three are less comfortable making other household purchases.

The Expectations and Investment sub-indices show minimal movement this week but continue to be relatively weak compared to start of the year.

Lastly, Americans have renewed concerns over the trajectory of inflation. More than three in five now believe that inflation will continue to go up over the next year, an eight-point increase from last month and the single largest month-over-month increase since Ipsos started tracking this metric in December 2021. There are also increased worries about monthly bills and taxes rising over the next year.

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Read the full story from Forbes Advisor here.

Learn more about the Ipsos Global Consumer Confidence Index and sub-indices via the interactive portal, Ipsos Consolidated Economic Indicators (IpsosGlobalIndicators.com) including graphic comparisons, trended data and all the questions on which they are based.

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Detailed Findings

1. Reading at 48.3, the latest Overall Consumer Confidence index is down 1.2 point from two weeks ago.

• The Overall Confidence Index is currently 5 points below the pandemic average and 11.8 points below where it stood in early March 2020, prior to the first lockdowns (60.1). The index now sits 4.5 points lower than its 20-year historical average.

 

2. The Expectations sub-index continued to show little movement, gaining just 0.3 point from two weeks ago. It continues to sit below its pandemic and historical averages, as well as its pre-pandemic reading. While it remained above the 60-point mark through all of 2021, it has been below that threshold for more than six months now.

3. The Current sub-index declined by more than one point for the second consecutive two-week period and now sits at its second lowest point of the year. In addition, the Investment sub-index declined by less than one point.

• The Current Index and Investment Index continue to remain significantly lower than they were pre-pandemic, now by 16.5 points and 15.2 points, respectively. The Current Index now sits nearly eight points lower than both its pandemic and 20-year historical averages, while the Investment Index is more than eight points lower than these respective averages.

4. The Jobs sub-index declined by more than three points from two weeks ago and now sits at its lowest point of 2022. While the index does continue to exceed both its pandemic and historical averages (by 1.7 and 2.5 points, respectively), it now sits nearly eight points below its pre-pandemic reading.

• The proportion of Americans who say they are more confident in their job security now compared to six months ago is at 44%, down 4 points from two weeks ago.
• The proportion of Americans reporting they, a family member, or a personal acquaintance lost their job in the past six months due to economic conditions is at 28%, up 4 points from two weeks ago.
• In addition, 41% say it’s at least somewhat likely that they, a family member, or a personal acquaintance will lose their job in the next six months due to economic conditions, up 1 point from two weeks ago.

 

5. More than three in five (63%) Americans surveyed now believe inflation will go up (up 8 points from four weeks ago when last measured). Three in five expect the amount they pay on monthly bills, mortgage interest rates, and taxes to continue to go up. Lastly, 43% of Americans expect the number of unemployed people in the country to increase (unchanged from four weeks ago). This measure continues to sit at its highest point since tracking first started in December 2021.

• Along with the increase in those that believe inflation will go up, the most significant change this week was among the percentage of Americans who believe the taxes they pay will go up (59%, up 8 points from early October).

 

6. Purchasing confidence continues to remain muted this week, as only around one in three report being more comfortable making both major and other household purchases.

• 31% say they are more comfortable making major household purchases compared to six months ago, down 2 points from the previous reading.

 

• 35% say they are more comfortable making other household purchases compared to six months ago, up 1 point from the previous reading.

 

Questions

The data used for the Consumer Confidence index and sub-indices is based on the following questions:

1. Now, thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in the US? Is it… very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad?

2. Rate the current state of the economy in your local area using a scale from 1 to 7, where 7 means a very strong economy today and 1 means a very weak economy.

3. Looking ahead six months from now, do you expect the economy in your local area to be much stronger, somewhat stronger, about the same, somewhat weaker, or much weaker than it is now?

4. Rate your current financial situation, using a scale from 1 to 7, where 7 means your personal financial situation is very strong today and 1 means it is very weak

5. Looking ahead six months from now, do you expect your personal financial situation to be much stronger, somewhat stronger, about the same, somewhat weaker, or much weaker than it is now?

6. Compared to 6 months ago, are you NOW more or less comfortable making a major purchase, like a home or car?

7. Compared to 6 months ago, are you NOW more or less comfortable making other household purchases?

8. Compared to 6 months ago, are you NOW more or less confident about job security for yourself, your family and other people you know personally?

9. Compared to 6 months ago, are you NOW more or less confident of your ability to invest in the future, including your ability to save money for your retirement or your children’s education?

10. Thinking of the last 6 months, have you, someone in your family or someone else you know personally lost their job as a result of economic conditions?

11. Now look ahead at the next six months. How likely is it that you, someone in your family or someone else you know personally will lose their job in the next six months as a result of economic conditions?

Additional question:

1. Over the next year, do you think each of the following will go up, go down, or stay about the same?

• The rate of inflation
• Mortgage interest rates
• The amount you pay on monthly bills and other regular expenses
• The taxes you pay
• The number of unemployed people in this country
• Your household income (e.g. wages, pensions, benefits, investment, etc.)
• The total amount of your debt (e.g., mortgage, home equity/ auto/ student/ pers. loans, credit card debt, etc.)
• Your own standard of living

About the Study                                            

These findings are based on data from an Ipsos survey conducted October 31 – November 1, 2022 with a sample of 919 adults aged 18-74 from the continental U.S., Alaska, and Hawaii who were interviewed online in English.

The sample was randomly drawn from Ipsos’ online panel, partner online panel sources, and “river” sampling and does not rely on a population frame in the traditional sense. Ipsos uses fixed sample targets, unique to each study, in drawing a sample. After a sample has been obtained from the Ipsos panel, Ipsos calibrates respondent characteristics to be representative of the U.S. Population using standard procedures such as raking-ratio adjustments. The source of these population targets is U.S. Census 2019 American Community Survey data. The sample drawn for this study reflects fixed sample targets on demographics. Post-hoc weights were made to the population characteristics on gender, age, race/ethnicity, region, education, and party identification. Party ID benchmarks are from recent ABC News/Washington Post telephone polls.  

Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online non-probability polls. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 4.0 percentage points for all respondents. Ipsos calculates a design effect (DEFF) for each study based on the variation of the weights, following the formula of Kish (1965). This study had a credibility interval adjusted for design effect. For n=919, DEFF=1.5 and adjusted Confidence Interval=+/-5.5 percentage points.

Findings from March 2010 to early March 2020 are based on data from Refinitiv /Ipsos’ Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI) collected in a monthly survey on Ipsos’ Global Advisor online survey platform with the same questions. For the PCSI survey, Ipsos interviews a total of 1,000+ U.S. adults aged 18-74. The Refinitiv/Ipsos Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI), ongoing since 2010, is a monthly survey of consumer attitudes on the current and future state of local economies, personal finance situations, savings, and confidence to make large investments. The PCSI metrics reported each month consist of a “Primary Index” based on 10 questions available upon request and of several “sub-indices” each based on a subset of these 10 questions. Those sub-indices include a Current Index, an Expectations Index, an Investment Index, and a Jobs Index. 

Findings for January 2002- February 2011 are based on data from the RBC CASH Index, a monthly telephone survey of 1,000 U.S. adults aged 18 and older conducted by Ipsos with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Chris Jackson

Senior Vice President, US

Public Affairs

+1 202 420 2025

[email protected]

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