Biden and Trump remain locked in tight race in Arizona

Senate race looks to favor Democratic candidate Kelly

The author(s)

  • Chris Jackson Senior Vice President, US, Public Affairs
  • Annaleise Azevedo Lohr Senior Account Manager, US, Public Affairs
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Washington, DC, November 2, 2020

The final Reuters/Ipsos Arizona state poll ahead of the election shows the race for the presidency as too close to call. When the very few undecided voters are asked who they would pick for president if they had to choose, Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden receives 50% of the vote share among likely voters and President Donald Trump receives 48%. If undecided voters are not forced to choose between the candidates, the margins are the same, with Biden receiving 49% of the vote share and Trump receiving 47%. This indicates that late deciders are not necessarily breaking strongly for either candidate. In the race for the Senate, Democratic challenger Mark Kelly (53%) has a nine percentage point advantage over Republican Senator Martha McSally (44%) among likely voters.

President Trump’s approval rating in Arizona is 46%, which is higher than the national average. When choosing a presidential candidate, the candidate’s plan for a strong national recovery from the coronavirus is the most important factor for 30% of Arizonians, followed by 23% who want a candidate who has a strong plan on the economy and job creation. About 46% of Arizonians prefer Biden’s plan on coronavirus compared to 40% of those who prefer Trump’s plan. When it comes to the economy and job creation, more Arizonians believe Trump has a better plan (50%) than Biden (39%).

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Washington, DC, October 28, 2020

In Arizona, Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden (48%) and President Donald Trump (46%) remain in a very tight race among likely voters. President Trump’s approval rating in the state stands at 44%, slightly above the national average. Arizonians want a presidential candidate who can both tackle the coronavirus (29%) and who has a strong plan for the economy and job creation (26%). The salience of a response to coronavirus has remained flat for the last five weeks, but the interest in choosing a candidate who can best help the economy has grown by six percentage points since mid-September (20%). Biden is perceived by more Arizonians as having a better plan for coronavirus (47%) than Trump (40%), while Trump (48%) is seen as stronger on the economy than Biden (41%). Looking towards the Senate race, Democratic challenger Mark Kelly has support from a majority of likely voters (51%), while Senator Martha McSally receives 44% of the vote share.

Arizonians are very supportive of economic stimulus measures including additional loans to small businesses for coronavirus related relief (86%), additional unemployment payments for people who have lost their job because of the pandemic (84%), giving Americans stimulus checks (81%), and postponing evictions (79%). However, just 40% of Arizonians are supportive of how Congress has handled the response to the pandemic.

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Washington, DC, October 21, 2020

In Arizona, the race for the presidency is too close to call among likely voters, with former Vice President and Democratic nominee Joe Biden receiving 49% of the vote share and President Donald Trump receiving 46%. President Trump’s approval rating in Arizona stands at 45% among all Arizonians. About 30% of Arizonians are looking for a presidential candidate who has a strong plan to help the nation recover from coronavirus, and 24% are looking for a candidate who has a strong plan on the economy and job creation. Biden is perceived to have a better plan on how to deal with coronavirus by 46% of Arizonians, compared to 40% who say the same thing about Trump. On the economy and job creation, Trump is seen as having a better plan by 45% compared to 41% who say the same thing about Biden. In the race for Arizona’s Senate seat, Democratic challenger Mark Kelly remains in the lead with a majority of the vote share among likely voters (51%), compared to Republican Senator Martha McSally who receives 43%.

Concerning other issues, most Arizonians are in favor of stimulus measures like additional loans to small businesses for coronavirus economic relief (87%), additional unemployment payments for people who have lost their jobs due to the pandemic (81%), eviction postponements (79%), and stimulus checks for Americans (79%). Just 35% say they support Congress’ overall coronavirus response. More than half say the winner of the next election should be able to appoint the late Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s replacement to the court (59%).

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Washington, DC, October 14, 2020

In Arizona, Democratic presidential nominee and former Vice President Joe Biden (50%) and President Trump (46%) remain in a closely contested race for the presidency among likely voters. Trump’s approval rating in Arizona is higher than the national average, with 47% reporting they approve of his performance. In the election for Arizona’s Senate seat, Democratic challenger Mark Kelly (52%) continues to lead Republican Senator Martha McSally (41%).  

One-third of Arizonians (31%) want a candidate for president that has a strong plan to recover from the coronavirus and one-fifth want a candidate who has a strong plan for the economy and job creation (20%). Forty-four percent perceive Biden as having a better plan to deal with coronavirus, compared to 40% who say the same about Trump. When it comes to the economy, Trump (47%) remains the preferred candidate, while 39% say Biden is better on the economy and job creation. Perceptions on the importance of issues and individual candidates’ performance on the issues have remained stable since Reuters/Ipsos began polling in mid-September.

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Washington, DC, October 7, 2020

In Arizona, among likely voters, the race for the presidency is still too close to call between President Donald Trump (46%) and Democratic candidate and former Vice President Joe Biden (48%). President Trump’s job approval rating among all Arizonians is 44%, slightly above the national average, which has been hovering near 40% for much of 2020.  When it comes to choosing a presidential candidate, a candidate with a robust plan for combatting the coronavirus is most important for 28% of Arizonians, followed by a strong plan for the economy and job creation (21%) and the ability to restore trust in government (16%). Looking at the candidates’ performance on these issues, Biden is seen as the candidate with a better plan for coronavirus recovery by more Arizonians (46%) than Trump (38%). Biden is also seen as the candidate who is best able to restore trust in government (44%) rather than Trump (35%). In contrast, when it comes to a plan for the economy and jobs, Trump (47%) outpaces Biden (40%). Looking toward the Senate race, Democratic challenger Mark Kelly (51%) has support from a majority of likely voters, compared to 41% who support Republican incumbent Martha McSally. Additionally, six in ten Arizonians (60%) believe that abortion should be legal in most cases, and a majority believe that the winner of the election should be able to appoint Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s replacement on the Supreme Court (54%).

Read the full Reuters' story here. 

Washington, DC, September 23, 2020

In Arizona, former Vice President Joe Biden (47%) and President Donald Trump (46%) are in a heavily contested race for the presidency among likely voters. Democrat challenger Mark Kelly (50%) is supported by about half of likely voters, compared to just 41% who support Republican incumbent Martha McSally in the contest for Arizona’s Senate seat. About 43% of Arizonians approve of Trump’s job performance, which is in line with the national average. More than a quarter of Arizonians think that having a robust plan to combat COVID-19 is the most important trait when selecting a candidate for president (27%), followed by having a strong plan for the economy (20%), and the ability to restore trust in government (17%). Arizonians perceive Biden as better equipped to help the nation recover from COVID-19 (43%), compared to 38% who feel the same about Trump. Trump is seen as having a stronger plan on the economy compared to Biden (Trump – 45%, Biden – 38%). Biden (43%) outperforms Trump (34%) on the ability to restore trust in government.

About the Study

These are the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted October 27 – November 2, 2020, on behalf of Thomson Reuters. For this study, a total of 989 adults age 18+ from Arizona were interviewed online in English and Spanish, including 610 likely voters. The first wave of this poll was conducted September 11-17, 2020, among 1,005 adults age 18+ from Arizona, including 565 likely voters. The second wave of this poll was conducted September 29 – October 7, 2020, among 1,099 adults age 18+ from Arizona, including 663 likely voters. The third wave of this poll was conducted October 7-14, 2020, among 998 adults age 18+ from Arizona, including 667 likely voters. The fourth wave of this poll was conducted October 7-14, 2020, among 951 adults age 18+ from Arizona, including 658 likely voters. The fifth wave of this poll was conducted October 21-27, 2020, among 1007 adults age 18+ from Arizona, including 714 likely voters.

The sample for this study was randomly drawn from Ipsos’ online panel (see link below for more info on “Access Panels and Recruitment”), partner online panel sources, and “river” sampling (see link below for more info on the Ipsos “Ampario Overview” sample method) and does not rely on a population frame in the traditional sense. Ipsos uses fixed sample targets, unique to each study, in drawing a sample. After a sample has been obtained from the Ipsos panel, Ipsos calibrates respondent characteristics to be representative of the U.S. Population using standard procedures such as raking-ratio adjustments. The source of these population targets is U.S. Census 2018 American Community Survey data. The sample drawn for this study reflects fixed sample targets on demographics. Posthoc weights were made to the population characteristics on gender, age, race/ethnicity, region, and education.

Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online non-probability polls. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the online sample for this poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points for all online respondents. Ipsos calculates a design effect (DEFF) for each study based on the variation of the weights, following the formula of Kish (1965). This study had a credibility interval adjusted for design effect of the following (n=989, DEFF=1.5, adjusted Confidence Interval=+/-5.1 percentage points). The online poll also has a credibility interval of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points for likely voters.

The first wave has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for all online respondents and plus or minus 4.7 percentage points for likely voters. The second wave has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points for all online respondents and plus or minus 4.3 percentage points for likely voters. The third wave has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for all online respondents and plus or minus 4.3 percentage points for likely voters. The fourth wave has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points for all online respondents and plus or minus 4.4 percentage points for likely voters. The fifth wave has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for all online respondents and plus or minus 4.2 percentage points for likely voters.

About Ipsos

Ipsos is the world’s third largest market research company, present in 90 markets and employing more than 18,000 people.

Our passionately curious research professionals, analysts and scientists have built unique multi-specialist capabilities that provide true understanding and powerful insights into the actions, opinions and motivations of citizens, consumers, patients, customers or employees. We serve more than 5000 clients across the world with 75 business solutions.

Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos is listed on the Euronext Paris since July 1st, 1999. The company is part of the SBF 120 and the Mid-60 index and is eligible for the Deferred Settlement Service (SRD).

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The author(s)

  • Chris Jackson Senior Vice President, US, Public Affairs
  • Annaleise Azevedo Lohr Senior Account Manager, US, Public Affairs

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