In the final days before election, Biden leads in Michigan
Washington, DC, November 1, 2020
In Michigan, Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden remains in the lead over President Donald Trump among likely voters. In the final Reuters/Ipsos survey in Michigan the final days before the election, when the few remaining undecided likely voters are asked to pick a candidate, the survey finds that Biden is up by eight percentage points, receiving 53% of the vote share among all likely voters, compared to 45% who support Trump. This indicates that Trump may benefit from last-minute deciders, but Biden is still in the lead in the state. When undecided likely voters are not forced to choose, Biden has a 10 percentage point advantage, receiving 53% of the vote share among likely voters, while Trump receives 43%.
Trump’s approval rating in the state stands at 44% overall. Having a strong plan to help the nation recover from coronavirus is the top priority of 33% of Michiganders when deciding who they will vote for president, followed by 20% who want a candidate who has a strong plan on the economy and job creation, and 19% who want a candidate who can restore trust in government. Biden is seen as having a better plan to address the pandemic by 48% of Michiganders, while 38% say the same about Trump. Biden is also the candidate seen as most likely to restore trust in government (46%) compared to Trump (37%). Trump is perceived as having a better strategy for the economy and job growth (47%) than Biden (40%). In the race for Senate, Senator Gary Peters (51%) receives a majority of the vote share among likely voters, while Republican challenger John James receives 44%.
Read the full Reuters' story here.
Washington, DC, October 27, 2020
In Michigan, Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden (52%) maintains his lead over President Donald Trump (43%) among likely voters in the election for president. Thirty-one percent of Michiganders say that choosing a presidential candidate with a strong plan to combat coronavirus is their main priority when deciding who to vote for, while 22% say that they look for a candidate with a strong plan on the economy and job creation. Biden is seen as a stronger candidate on coronavirus by 49% of Michiganders, while 38% say they prefer Trump on the issue. Forty-six percent say that Trump is stronger on the economy and job creation, while 41% say the same thing about Biden. In the race for the Senate, Democratic Senator Gary Peters receives 50% of the vote share compared to 44% who say they would vote for the Republican challenger John James.
Michiganders are extremely supportive of stimulus measures, like additional loans to small businesses impacted by coronavirus (87%), providing stimulus checks to Americans (84%), eviction postponement (82%), and additional unemployment payments for people who lost their jobs due to the pandemic (81%). Just 38% of Michiganders support Congress’ overall response to the pandemic.
Read the full Reuters' story here.
Washington, DC, October 20, 2020
Former Vice President and Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden maintains his lead among likely voters in Michigan with 51% of the vote share, compared to President Donald Trump’s 44%. This is virtually unchanged from the last two waves of Reuters/Ipsos surveys conducted earlier this month. Forty-four percent of all Michiganders approve of how Trump is handling his job as president. Michiganders’ priorities for a presidential candidate are unchanged over the last four Reuters/Ipsos surveys – 33% want a candidate who can help with the fallout of coronavirus, 19% want a candidate who has a strong plan on the economy and job creation, and 17% want a candidate who can restore trust in government. Biden enjoys a 10 percentage point advantage on his plan to deal with coronavirus (48%) over Trump (38%). Biden is also seen by more Michiganders as the candidate who can restore trust in government (46%, compared to Trump at 34%). Biden (42%) and Trump (46%) are perceived more equitably on their plans for the economy and job creation. In the race for Michigan’s Senate seat, Democratic Senator Gary Peters receives 50% of the vote share among likely voters while his opponent, Republican John James, receives 45%.
Michiganders are largely supportive of economic stimulus measures, like additional loans to small businesses for coronavirus-related relief (86%), stimulus checks for Americans (84%), additional unemployment payments to those who have lost their job since the coronavirus pandemic began (77%), and eviction postponement (76%). Just 38% support how Congress has responded to the coronavirus. Additionally, a majority agree that the winner of the election should be able to appoint the late Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s replacement to the court (58%).
Read the full Reuters' story here.
Washington, DC, October 13, 2020
In Michigan, Democratic presidential nominee and former Vice President Joe Biden receives the majority of the vote share from likely voters (51%), compared to 43% of likely voters who say they would vote for President Donald Trump. In the race for the Senate, Democratic Senator Gary Peters also receives a majority of support from likely voters (52%), while Republican challenger John James receives 44% of the vote share among likely voters.
President Trump’s overall approval rating stands at 44% among all Michiganders. About one third of Michiganders prioritize having a strong plan to recover from the impact of coronavirus (31%) when considering a presidential candidate, followed by the ability to restore trust in government (21%) and having a strong plan on the economy and job creation (19%). Michiganders are equally likely to say Trump (45%) or Biden (44%) has a better plan for the economy and job creation. Biden enjoys an edge over Trump on the issues of coronavirus (Biden – 48%, Trump – 37%) and the ability to restore trust in government (Biden – 47%, Trump – 33%).
Read the full Reuters' story here.
Washington, DC, October 6, 2020
Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden leads the race for the White House in Michigan, receiving a majority of the vote share (51%) among likely voters, compared to 43% who would vote President Donald Trump. This is a slight improvement for Biden since mid-September. President Trump’s approval rating is in line with the national average at 43% and is statistically unchanged from mid-September. Having a national plan to recover from coronavirus is the top issue for 30% of Michiganders when considering a presidential candidate, followed by a strong plan for the economy (20%) and the ability to restore trust in government (19%). Trump (47%) slightly outperforms Biden (42%) when Michiganders consider the economy, while Biden outperforms Trump on COVID (Biden – 47%, Trump – 40%), and the ability to restore trust in government (Biden – 47%, Trump – 36%). Shifting toward the Senate race, Democratic Senator Gary Peters leads (50%) his Republican challenger John James (43%) for Michigan’s Senate seat. A majority in Michigan think that abortion should be legal in most cases (54%), and 55% say that Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s replacement should be appointed by the winner of the election.
Read the full Reuters' story here.
Washington, DC, September 22, 2020
About half of likely voters in Michigan report they would vote for former Vice President Joe Biden (49%) if the election were held today compared to 44% who say they would vote for President Donald Trump. In the race for Michigan’s Senate seat, Democrat Gary Peters receives 49% of the vote share compared to Republican John James, who receives 43% among likely voters. Among all Michiganders, approximately two in five approve of how President Trump is handling his job as president (42%), in line with national averages. Having a viable plan to help the nation recover from COVID-19 is the most important candidate trait Michiganders are looking for when deciding how to vote for president (30%), followed by a strong plan for the economy (20%) and the ability to restore trust in government (18%). Joe Biden (47%) is seen as having a better plan for the COVID-19 recovery than Donald Trump (38%). More Michiganders believe that Biden (45%) will restore trust in government than Trump (35%). Biden and Trump are statistically level on economic performance (Biden – 41%, Trump – 44%).
About the Study
These are the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted October 27 – November 1, 2020, on behalf of Thomson Reuters. For this study, a total of 1,007 adults age 18+ from Michigan were interviewed online in English, including 654 likely voters. The first wave of this poll was conducted September 11-16, 2020, among 1,005 adults age 18+ from Michigan, including 637 likely voters. The second wave of this poll was conducted September 29 – October 6, 2020, among 1,098 adults age 18+ from Michigan, including 709 likely voters. The third wave of this poll was conducted from October 7-13, 2020 among 985 adults age 18+ from Michigan, including 620 likely voters. The fourth wave of this poll was conducted from October 14-20, 2020 among 1,001 adults age 18+ from Michigan, including 686 likely voters. The fifth wave of this poll was conducted from October 20-26, 2020 among 1,005 adults age 18+ from Michigan, including 652 likely voters.
The sample for this study was randomly drawn from Ipsos’ online panel (see link below for more info on “Access Panels and Recruitment”), partner online panel sources, and “river” sampling (see link below for more info on the Ipsos “Ampario Overview” sample method) and does not rely on a population frame in the traditional sense. Ipsos uses fixed sample targets, unique to each study, in drawing a sample. After a sample has been obtained from the Ipsos panel, Ipsos calibrates respondent characteristics to be representative of the U.S. Population using standard procedures such as raking-ratio adjustments. The source of these population targets is U.S. Census 2018 American Community Survey data. The sample drawn for this study reflects fixed sample targets on demographics. Posthoc weights were made to the population characteristics on gender, age, race/ethnicity, region, and education.
Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online non-probability polls. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the online sample for this poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for all online respondents. Ipsos calculates a design effect (DEFF) for each study based on the variation of the weights, following the formula of Kish (1965). This study had a credibility interval adjusted for design effect of the following (n=1,007, DEFF=1.5, adjusted Confidence Interval=+/-5.0 percentage points). The online poll also has a credibility interval of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points for likely voters.
The first wave has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for all online respondents and plus or minus 4.4 percentage points for likely voters. The second wave has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points for all online respondents and plus or minus 4.2 percentage points for likely voters. The third wave has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points for all online respondents and plus or minus 4.5 points for likely voters. The fourth wave has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for all online respondents and plus or minus 4.3 points for likely voters. The fifth wave has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for all online respondents and plus or minus 4.4 points for likely voters.
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