Washington, DC, January 31, 2020 — The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll shows that among Democratic registered voters, Former Vice President Joe Biden remains the favorite candidate (27%), Senator Bernie Sanders is in second place with 21% of the vote share, and Senator Elizabeth Warren (12%) and Former Mayor Michael Bloomberg (12%) are tied for third place. About 4 in 5 Democratic registered voters report they are completely or mostly certain about who they will vote for in the primary (84%). If their preferred candidate were to drop out of the race, Warren (21%) and Sanders (19%) are the top second choices, followed by Biden (17%) and Bloomberg (13%).
About two-thirds of Democratic registered voters report being interested in the early state primaries and caucuses in Iowa (67%), New Hampshire (68%), Nevada (66%), and South Carolina (66%). Sixteen percent report that the results of the early state primaries will have a major impact on their choice and a quarter of Democratic registered voters (23%) said it would have no impact at all.
About the Study
These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between January 29-30, 2020 on behalf of Thomson Reuters. For this survey, a sample of 1,116 Americans age 18+ from the continental U.S., Alaska and Hawaii were interviewed online in English. The sample includes 964 registered voters, 444 Democratic registered voters, 399 Republican registered voters, and 82 independent registered voters. Weighting was then employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within ± 3.3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Americans been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error. The poll also has a credibility interval ± 3.6 percentage points for registered voters, ± 5.3 percentage points for Democratic registered voters, ± 5.6 percentage points for Republican registered voters, and ± 12.3 percentage points for independent registered voters.
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