Reuters/Ipsos Survey: 2020 Democratic Primary Tracker – Post Super Tuesday Edition (03/05/2020)
Biden surpasses Sanders in the lead for the Democratic nomination for president after winning 10 Super Tuesday states.
Washington, DC, March 5, 2020 — A post Super Tuesday Reuters/Ipsos Democratic primary tracker special edition examines the impact of the election results on the Democratic primary race. The survey, conducted between March 4-5, 2020, before Senator Elizabeth Warren exited the race, shows that support for former Vice President Joe Biden has increased significantly following the drop outs and endorsements from moderate former candidates Senator Amy Klobuchar, former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg, and former New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg. About 2 in 5 Democratic registered voters (45%) say they would support Biden in the Democratic primary, compared to 32% who say they would support Sanders. Among independents and Democratic registered voters, 40% say they would support Biden, compared to 30% who would support Sanders.
The electorate is split on who they would pick as their alternate choice if their first choice dropped out. Sanders is the top alternate choice (30%), followed by Warren (29%) and Biden (25%) among Democratic registered voters. Those who support Warren for the nomination are equally likely to say they would support Biden (46%) or Sanders (47%) as their alternate choice.
When looking at the candidates on the issues, Biden is seen by Democratic registered voters as the candidate most likely to beat President Trump in the general election (54%), compared to just 25% who say Sanders would be a better opponent against Trump. Electability is the most important issue for 46% of Democratic registered voters, followed by healthcare which is the key issue for 14% of Democratic registered voters. Sanders is seen as having stronger policies on healthcare (41%) than Biden (33%).
Read the full Reuters' story here.
About the Study
These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between March 4 and March 5, 2020 on behalf of Thomson Reuters. For this survey, a sample of 1,115 Americans age 18+ from the continental U.S., Alaska and Hawaii were interviewed online in English. The sample includes 955 registered voters, 474 Democratic registered voters, 365 Republican registered voters, and 78 independent registered voters. Weighting was then employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within ± 3.3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Americans been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error. The poll also has a credibility interval ± 3.6 percentage points for registered voters, ± 5.1 percentage points for Democratic registered voters, ± 5.8 percentage points for Republican registered voters, and ± 12.7 percentage points for independent registered voters. .
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