Small Business Economic Outlook on the Rebound, Investment and Staffing Holds Steady

Ipsos' latest MetLife/U.S. Chamber of Commerce Small Business Index survey shows an uptick in national economic outlooks from Q1

The author(s)

  • Chris Jackson Vice President, US, Public Affairs
  • Mallory Newall Director, US, Public Affairs
  • Emily Chen Research Analyst, US, Public Affairs
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Washington, DC- The latest report shows that the MetLife & U.S. Chamber of Commerce Small Business Index has rebounded in Q2 2019, after dropping in the first quarter. The current Small Business Index is 68.7, up from 65.6 last quarter. This uptick is largely due to more positive national economic outlooks (local economic outlooks are statistically unchanged from last quarter) and continued optimism on business health and cash flow. Fewer businesses are also reporting an increase on time spent on compliance or regulation, compared to last quarter. Please visit https://www.uschamber.com/sbindex/ for more information.

About the Study

These are findings from an Ipsos poll conducted April 1- May 6, 2019, via telephone in English. For the survey, a sample of 1,000 small business owners and operators was sourced from the continental U.S., Alaska and Hawaii. Small businesses are defined in this study as companies with fewer than 500 employees that are not sole proprietorships. The sample for this study is a listed business directory of all U.S. businesses obtained through Dun and Bradstreet. Ipsos used fixed sample targets, unique to this study, in drawing sample. This sample calibrates respondent characteristics to be representative of the U.S. small business population using standard procedures such as raking-ratio adjustments. The source of these population targets is U.S. Census 2016 Statistics of U.S. Businesses dataset. The sample drawn for this study reflects fixed sample targets on firmographics. Post-hoc weights were made to the population characteristics on region, industry sector and size of business. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for all respondents. Ipsos calculates a design effect (DEFF) for each study based on the variation of the weights, following the formula of Kish (1965). This study had a confidence interval adjusted for design effect of the following: (n=1,000, DEFF=1.5) adjusted Confidence Interval=+/-5 percentage points. Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding.

Index Methodology

To construct national, regional, employee size, and broad industry group level estimates of the health of small businesses in the U.S. a sequence of statistical techniques were applied to the survey results, including elastic net for variable selection and multilevel regression with post stratification (MRP) from the survey data.

Since each business may report the state of its health by different standards, Ipsos uses the core survey questions to construct a stable, consistent definition of small business status. Each business is then classified into one of three categories: poor, neutral, or good. Once each business is measured on a consistent scale, the survey results are fed into a multilevel regression model to generalize our results to a broader set of businesses enabling us to measure the health of businesses not just nationally but also at the level of state, industry, and business size. The model uses employee size, industry type, and location as individual level predictors, as well as data from the BLS on job change by industry.

Next, to ensure that our model results are reflective of the small business population in the U.S., we adjust our estimates using the number of businesses in the over 5,000 possible combinations of state, industry, and firm-size categories to ensure that the model of business health represents the U.S. population of small businesses.

The process used is known as post-stratification, something which was not possible with the original sample due to sample-size limitations. The population estimates for employee size, industry, and location were obtained from the 2014 Census Survey of U.S. Businesses.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Chris Jackson
Vice President, U.S.
Ipsos Public Affairs
202.420.2011
chris.jackson@ipsos.com

Mallory Newall
Director, U.S.
Ipsos Public Affairs
+1 202 420-2014
mallory.newall@ipsos.com

About Ipsos

Ipsos is a global independent market research company. Our team of 18,000 across 90 countries serves 5,000 clients and undertakes 70,000 different projects each year. Our polling practice is a non-partisan, objective, survey-based research practice made up of seasoned professionals. We conduct strategic research initiatives for a diverse number of American and international organizations, based not only on public opinion research, but elite stakeholder, corporate, and media opinion research.

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Ipsos has been listed on the Paris Stock Exchange since 1999 and generated global revenues of €1,749.5 million in 2018.

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The author(s)

  • Chris Jackson Vice President, US, Public Affairs
  • Mallory Newall Director, US, Public Affairs
  • Emily Chen Research Analyst, US, Public Affairs

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