Washington, DC - The latest MetLife/U.S. Chamber of Commerce Small Business report shows increased optimism regarding local economic outlooks, during a time where businesses continue to feel positive about the national economy and their own business' health. All other indicators remain largely unchanged at the national level. The current index number is 70.7, up from 68.7 last quarter, making it the highest index rating we've seen since the survey began in Q2 of 2017. Please visit https://www.uschamber.com/sbindex/ for more information.
About the Study
These are findings from an Ipsos poll conducted June 28-July 25, 2019, via telephone in English. For the survey, a sample of 900 small business owners and operators was sourced from the continental U.S., Alaska and Hawaii. An additional oversample of 100 veteran-owned small business owners and operators from the continental U.S., Alaska and Hawaii was also surveyed, for a total of 159 veteran-owned business interviews out of 1,000.
Small businesses are defined in this study as companies with fewer than 500 employees that are not sole proprietorships. The sample for this study is a listed business directory of all U.S. businesses obtained through Dun and Bradstreet. Ipsos used fixed sample targets, unique to this study, in drawing the sample. This sample calibrates respondent characteristics to be representative of the U.S. small business population using standard procedures such as raking-ratio adjustments. The source of these population targets is U.S. Census 2016 Statistics of U.S. Businesses dataset. The sample drawn for this study reflects fixed sample targets on firmographics. Post-hoc weights were made to the population characteristics on region, industry sector and size of business.
All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for all respondents. The poll also has a margin of error of plus or minus 7.7 percentage points for veteran-owned businesses. Ipsos calculates a design effect (DEFF) for each study based on the variation of the weights, following the formula of Kish (1965). This study had a confidence interval adjusted for design effect of the following: (n=1,000, DEFF=1.5) adjusted Confidence Interval=+/-5 percentage points. Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding.
To construct national, regional, employee size, and broad industry group level estimates of the health of small businesses in the U.S. a sequence of statistical techniques were applied to the survey results, including elastic net for variable selection and multilevel regression with post stratification (MRP) from the survey data.
Since each business may report the state of its health by different standards, Ipsos uses the core survey questions to construct a stable, consistent definition of small business status. Each business is then classified into one of three categories: poor, neutral, or good. Once each business is measured on a consistent scale, the survey results are fed into a multilevel regression model to generalize our results to a broader set of businesses enabling us to measure the health of businesses not just nationally but also at the level of state, industry, and business size. The model uses employee size, industry type, and location as individual level predictors, as well as data from the BLS on job change by industry.
Next, to ensure that our model results are reflective of the small business population in the U.S., we adjust our estimates using the number of businesses in the over 5,000 possible combinations of state, industry, and firm-size categories to ensure that the model of business health represents the U.S. population of small businesses.
The process used is known as post-stratification, something which was not possible with the original sample due to sample-size limitations. The population estimates for employee size, industry, and location were obtained from the 2014 Census Survey of U.S. Businesses.
For more information on this news release, please contact:
Vice President, U.S.
Ipsos Public Affairs
Ipsos Public Affairs
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