Washington, DC - Today, Ipsos released new election data in partnership with Reuters and the University of Virginia Center for Politics, showing that Republican Martha McSally (48%) and Democrat Kyrsten Sinema (46%) remain statistically tied in the Arizona Senate race. A win will come down to whichever side is more mobilized to show up to vote.
Since our last Arizona poll, Republicans have gained a slight advantage on the generic Congressional ballot question. Voter preference was even in September, but has now jumped to a 5-point preference for a generic Republican candidate (50%). However, Democrats have a 10-point advantage when it comes to interest in the election, so again, a win will likely come down to whichever side shows up to vote.
The gap between Democrat candidate for Governor, David Garcia, and Republican Doug Ducey has widened 8-points since September, with 37% of likely voters reporting they would vote for Garcia compared to 57% who said they’d vote for Ducey (compared to 39% and 51%, respectively).
President Trump’s approval rating has increased among likely voters from 45% in September to 54% with an 8-point gain among those who “strongly approve” (a shift from 28% to 36%). Immigration (23%) remains the most important issue in determining the vote. Among likely voters, 47% think McSally has the best immigration policies between candidates for Senate vs. 40% who feel Sinema does. Similarly, likely voters feel that Republican candidate Ducey (55%) has a better immigration policy than Democrat candidate Garcia (31%).
For more information on Arizona and other races, please reference the Political Atlas, an interactive website collaboration between Ipsos and the University of Virginia Center for Politics.
The Political Atlas site provides daily updates of the main issues affecting citizens in all 50 states, along with poll and social media indicators for every congressional, senate, and gubernatorial race in the country, with expert assessments. Bringing this to the midterm election provides further resolution to the ebbs and flows of the campaigns. Ipsos uses machine learning and natural language processing algorithms to collect and categorize over 5 million individual posts a day.
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