U.S. consumer sentiment rebounds from slump but remains muted
Washington, DC, December 1, 2022 – Americans’ economic sentiment rebounded this week, as the Ipsos-Forbes Advisor U.S. Consumer Confidence Tracker’s Overall index is at 50.7. The index is up 2.6 points from its previous reading two weeks ago. However, it continues to remain muted relative to the start of the year, and it currently sits six points lower than in early January.
All four sub-indices increased significantly this week. The Jobs, Investment, and Current sub-indices each gained about three points, while the Expectations Index gained around two points. Despite these gains, all sub-indices remain lower than they were to begin the year.
Americans purchasing confidence shows a slight uptick this week. However, fewer than two in five Americans are more comfortable making both major and other household purchases.
Lastly, sentiment continues to differ widely among demographic groups. Democrats, those living in urban areas, those earning more than $100K show scores significantly higher than the total population. In contrast, those earning less than $50K, Republicans, and rural Americans continue to have significantly lower index scores.
Read the full story from Forbes Advisor here.
Learn more about the Ipsos Global Consumer Confidence Index and sub-indices via the interactive portal, Ipsos Consolidated Economic Indicators (IpsosGlobalIndicators.com) including graphic comparisons, trended data and all the questions on which they are based.
Detailed Findings
1. Reading at 50.7, the latest Overall Consumer Confidence index is up 2.6 points from two weeks ago.
- The Overall Confidence Index is currently 2.5 points below the pandemic average and 9.4 points below where it stood in early March 2020, prior to the first lockdowns (60.1). The index now sits just 2.1 points lower than its 20-year historical average.
2. The Expectations sub-index gained about two points this reading and now sits at its highest point since early September. The index still remains below its pandemic and historical averages, as well as its pre-pandemic reading. Lastly, while it remained above the 60-point mark through all of 2021, it has now been below that threshold for the past seven months.
3. The Current and Investment sub-indices both gained around three points this week. However, despite these gains, both remain significantly lower than their respective readings to start the year.
- The Current and Investment sub-indices continue to remain significantly lower than they were pre-pandemic, now by 13.7 points and 12.7 points, respectively. The Current sub-index now sits roughly five points lower than both its pandemic and 20-year historical averages, while the Investment Index is about six points lower than these respective averages.
4. The Jobs sub-index rebounded this week following a slump that resulted in the index falling to its lowest point of 2022. The index continues to exceed both its pandemic and historical averages (by 4.7 and 5.5 points, respectively), and it is now around five points below its pre-pandemic reading.
- The proportion of Americans who say they are more confident in their job security now compared to six months ago is at 48%, up 3 points from two weeks ago.
- The proportion of Americans reporting they, a family member, or a personal acquaintance lost their job in the past six months due to economic conditions is at 25%, down 3 points from two weeks ago.
- Most notably, 39% say it’s at least somewhat likely that they, a family member, or a personal acquaintance will lose their job in the next six months due to economic conditions, down 7 points from two weeks ago.
5. Nearly three in five (59%) Americans surveyed now believe inflation will go up (down 4 points from four weeks ago when last measured). Three in five expect the amount they pay on monthly bills to go up, while a majority expect the same taxes and mortgage interest rates. Lastly, 48% of Americans expect the number of unemployed people in the country to increase (up 5 points from four weeks ago). This measure continues to sit at its highest point since tracking first started in December 2021.
- Along with the increase in those that believe the number of unemployed people in the country will go up, the most significant change this week was among the percentage of Americans who believe mortgage interest will go up (54%, down 5 points from early November).
6. Purchasing confidence shows a slight uptick this week. However, around two in three continue to be less comfortable making major purchases, and about three in five are less comfortable making other household purchases.
- 33% say they are more comfortable making major household purchases compared to six months ago, up 3 points from two weeks ago.
- 38% say they are more comfortable making other household purchases compared to six months ago, up 5 points from the previous reading.
Questions
The data used for the Consumer Confidence index and sub-indices is based on the following questions:
1. Now, thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in the US? Is it… very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad?
2. Rate the current state of the economy in your local area using a scale from 1 to 7, where 7 means a very strong economy today and 1 means a very weak economy.
3. Looking ahead six months from now, do you expect the economy in your local area to be much stronger, somewhat stronger, about the same, somewhat weaker, or much weaker than it is now?
4. Rate your current financial situation, using a scale from 1 to 7, where 7 means your personal financial situation is very strong today and 1 means it is very weak
5. Looking ahead six months from now, do you expect your personal financial situation to be much stronger, somewhat stronger, about the same, somewhat weaker, or much weaker than it is now?
6. Compared to 6 months ago, are you NOW more or less comfortable making a major purchase, like a home or car?
7. Compared to 6 months ago, are you NOW more or less comfortable making other household purchases?
8. Compared to 6 months ago, are you NOW more or less confident about job security for yourself, your family and other people you know personally?
9. Compared to 6 months ago, are you NOW more or less confident of your ability to invest in the future, including your ability to save money for your retirement or your children’s education?
10. Thinking of the last 6 months, have you, someone in your family or someone else you know personally lost their job as a result of economic conditions?
11. Now look ahead at the next six months. How likely is it that you, someone in your family or someone else you know personally will lose their job in the next six months as a result of economic conditions?
Additional question:
1. Over the next year, do you think each of the following will go up, go down, or stay about the same?
- The rate of inflation
- Mortgage interest rates
- The amount you pay on monthly bills and other regular expenses
- The taxes you pay
- The number of unemployed people in this country
- Your household income (e.g. wages, pensions, benefits, investment, etc.)
- The total amount of your debt (e.g., mortgage, home equity/ auto/ student/ pers. loans, credit card debt, etc.)
- Your own standard of living
About the Study
These findings are based on data from an Ipsos survey conducted November 28 – 29, 2022 with a sample of 916 adults aged 18-74 from the continental U.S., Alaska, and Hawaii who were interviewed online in English.
The sample was randomly drawn from Ipsos’ online panel, partner online panel sources, and “river” sampling and does not rely on a population frame in the traditional sense. Ipsos uses fixed sample targets, unique to each study, in drawing a sample. After a sample has been obtained from the Ipsos panel, Ipsos calibrates respondent characteristics to be representative of the U.S. Population using standard procedures such as raking-ratio adjustments. The source of these population targets is U.S. Census 2019 American Community Survey data. The sample drawn for this study reflects fixed sample targets on demographics. Post-hoc weights were made to the population characteristics on gender, age, race/ethnicity, region, education, and party identification. Party ID benchmarks are from recent ABC News/Washington Post telephone polls.
Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online non-probability polls. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 4.0 percentage points for all respondents. Ipsos calculates a design effect (DEFF) for each study based on the variation of the weights, following the formula of Kish (1965). This study had a credibility interval adjusted for design effect. For n=916, DEFF=1.5 and adjusted Confidence Interval=+/-5.5 percentage points.
Findings from March 2010 to early March 2020 are based on data from Refinitiv /Ipsos’ Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI) collected in a monthly survey on Ipsos’ Global Advisor online survey platform with the same questions. For the PCSI survey, Ipsos interviews a total of 1,000+ U.S. adults aged 18-74. The Refinitiv/Ipsos Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI), ongoing since 2010, is a monthly survey of consumer attitudes on the current and future state of local economies, personal finance situations, savings, and confidence to make large investments. The PCSI metrics reported each month consist of a “Primary Index” based on 10 questions available upon request and of several “sub-indices” each based on a subset of these 10 questions. Those sub-indices include a Current Index, an Expectations Index, an Investment Index, and a Jobs Index.
Findings for January 2002- February 2011 are based on data from the RBC CASH Index, a monthly telephone survey of 1,000 U.S. adults aged 18 and older conducted by Ipsos with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points.
For more information on this news release, please contact:
Chris Jackson
Senior Vice President, US
Public Affairs
+1 202 420 2025
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