Nine in ten small businesses agree they are the most vulnerable to rising interest rates
Washington, DC, June 28, 2023 — This quarter of the Ipsos/MetLife/U.S. Chamber of Commerce Small Business Index reads at 63.1, marking a slight increase since last quarter (60.0) and realigning with that of Q4 2022 (62.1). Although perceptions of the current economic environment are largely consistent since last quarter, increasingly optimistic perceptions around hiring and revenue in the next year are largely responsible for the change in the index this quarter. Perceptions around increased investment, however, remain consistent with last quarter. Regardless, small businesses in general continue to feel good about the day-to-day operations of their business despite ongoing concerns around inflation and rising interest rates.
Small business owners’ bullish expectations for increased staffing and revenue over the next year are not without impediments due to the current macroeconomic climate. More than half of small business owners continue to cite inflation as their top concern. They also report feeling the effects of interest rate hikes when it comes to their financing, which could be a factor in why concerns over interest rates are rising.
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About the Study
These are the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between May 8 – 24, 2023. For this survey, a sample of 752 small business owners and operators age 18+ from the continental U.S. Alaska and Hawaii was interviewed online in English.
The sample was randomly drawn from partner online panel sources that specialize in B2B sample and does not rely on a population frame in the traditional sense. Ipsos uses fixed sample targets, unique to the study, in drawing sample. Small businesses are defined in this study as companies with 500 or fewer employees that are not sole proprietorships. This sample calibrates respondent characteristics to be representative of the U.S. small business population using standard procedures such as raking-ratio adjustments. The source of these population targets is U.S. Census 2019 Statistics of U.S. Businesses dataset. The sample drawn for this study reflects fixed sample targets on firmographics. Post-hoc weights were made to the population characteristics on region, industry sector and size of business. Additional post-hoc weights were made to the population characteristics on the gender of the business’s owner and whether the business is minority-owned or not.
Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online non-probability polls. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points for all respondents. Ipsos calculates a design effect (DEFF) for each study based on the variation of the weights, following the formula of Kish (1965). This study had a credibility interval adjusted for design effect of the following (n=752, DEFF=1.5, adjusted Confidence Interval=+/-5.9 percentage points).
Starting with the March 2020 survey, small business decision makers are reached via an online survey, in place of the typical phone-based approach. This methodological shift is in response to lower anticipated response rates in dialing owners at their businesses as a result of mandated closures related to the COVID-19 outbreak. While significant changes in data points can largely be attributed to the recent economic environment, switching from a phone to online approach may have also generated a mode effect.
For more information on this news release, please contact:
Mallory Newall
Vice President, US
Public Affairs
+1 202 374 2613
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