The midterm enthusiasm gap
In a midterm election, enthusiasm is key.
Midterms usually are not won by persuading swing voters, they're won by each party turning out their respective bases. And right now, Democrats appear fired up. For Republicans, the picture is a bit less rosy.
Below are five charts on the political mood of the country heading into the 2026 midterm elections.
1. Intent to vote. Midterms are often decided not by convincing “swing voters,” but by parties turning out their bases on Election Day. Right now, Democrats may have an edge, with more Democratic leaners than Republican leaners saying they are “absolutely certain” they will vote this November.
2. The enthusiasm gap. For many Democrats, this election is everything. For Republicans? A bit less so. Democrats and Democratic leaners are 22 percentage points more likely than their Republican counterparts to feel this election is more important than past midterms. Again, enthusiasm is key in these elections.
3. The influence of gas prices. Republicans who are optimistic that gas prices will go down are more likely to feel the midterms are important. In contrast, Republicans who are pessimistic about gas prices are much less likely to feel the midterms are important.
4. It’s not me, it’s you. Despite their increased voting enthusiasm, Democrats—who overwhelmingly disapprove of President Donald Trump—show less enthusiasm for the Democratic Party than Republicans show for the GOP. For Democrats, are the midterms about the Democratic Party—or are they about Trump?
5. The power of the main issue. Ultimately, as history shows, elections often come down to the main issue. Over the past several months, the dominant concern has been the cost of living. This is true among Republicans and independents. Democrats similarly care about the cost of living, but also strongly care about democratic values and norms. This is the context of the moment.
Right now, historical trends, current polling averages, and the enthusiasm gap all favor Democrats in November.
But amid ongoing redistricting battles, the possibility of a resolution with Iran, or any number of things that could surface between now and November, there’s no telling how the landscape could shift.
We live in uncertain times. There’s plenty of runway left. Watch this space.
