Level-setting the midterms heading into Labor Day

The 2026 midterm elections are just around the corner.

Much like the 2024 election, economic concerns will be front and center this November. But beyond that, a lot has changed.

Below are five charts on where things stand heading into the 2026 midterms and what signals will be most important to watch between now and Election Day.

1. Cost of living is king. The cost of living has not wavered as the top issue on Americans’ minds heading into the midterms. There are some partisan differences, and local issues will matter too. But broadly speaking, the cost of living is what will define the midterms.

2. Trump’s approval has softened – including among Republicans. It’s long been said that President Trump’s approval rating has a high floor, thanks to durable support from the Republican base. That remains true today, with a large majority of Republicans continuing to approve of Trump. However, there has been slippage behind the scenes. While Trump’s overall approval among Republicans has only declined slightly, the share of Republicans who strongly approve has dropped significantly. If a midterm election is a de facto referendum on the president, Trump’s approval rating among his base will matter.

3. Republicans lose edge on key issues. Not too long ago, Republicans had strong advantages on the economy and immigration. Now, their edge is no longer as clear. This is a major change in how voters view both parties.

4. Democrats somewhat divided on democratic socialists. The country as a whole is still getting to know who democratic socialists are and what they stand for. Even Democrats are still making up their minds. Democratic socialists have had some success in Democratic primaries, but midterm electorates look much different than primary electorates. How midterm voters respond to democratic socialist candidates as they learn more about them will be important to watch.

5. Iran involvement remains unpopular. The war in Iran today hit the six-month mark. A majority of Americans don’t see the end in sight. For the most part, Americans don’t feel it has been worth the costs.

Generic ballot polling, performance on the top issue and historic trends all point in Democrats' favor this November. But redistricting, rulings on mail-in voting, a reignited trade war with Canada and the rise of democratic socialists could all shift these signals between now and November. Watch this space.