NEWSWEEK GENEXT Poll: Bush Approval Ratings Worsen

Washington, DC - The June GENext poll shows significant strengthening of support for Kerry, but with no weakening among Bush supporters. But whereas in past polls young voters were somewhat more inclined to back Bush on foreign policy than on domestic and economic issues, half or more now criticize the President on all the main policy areas. Young voters don't support abandoning Iraq; seven in ten say the U.S. troop presence should be kept in country as long as necessary or slowly scaled back. But in the bigger picture, Iraq and security at home just are not at the front of young voters' minds when they think about how to cast their ballot. Two-thirds say they are more likely to vote for a candidate who focuses on the economy and jobs, rather than on national security and the war on terrorism. Over the past few months, support for Ralph Nader has been higher among young voters than the voting public at large, but the most recent poll shows that this support has been tapering off. Seven percent of registered voters under 30 say they would vote for Nader, down from 12% in March. While half (54%) overall say voting for Nader would neither help nor hurt Bush's chances for reelection, three in ten do see a connection between voting for Nader and Bush's reelection prospects. Strong Kerry supporters are most likely to see this link (46% help Bush). Two in three young voters emphasize the primacy of the economy in this year's election race. This view spans gender, race, education, and region. However, strong Bush supporters stand apart in their preference for a candidate who focuses more on national security (62%). By contrast, weak Bush supporters (57%) lean toward a candidate that emphasizes the economy, as do undecided and Kerry voters. On Iraq, young voters tend to agree that that the U.S. cannot and should not pull its troops out of Iraq immediately after the handover of power. Women with a high school education or less are most likely to say the troops should pull out immediately after June 30 (32%). In addition, a preference for pulling troops out sooner rather than later is higher among Democratic women (44% quickly reduce or immediately withdraw), undecided voters (52%) and strong Kerry supporters (43%). Disapproval of Bush's performance grew in June, making this the most negative read since the previous low in March. Apart from the predictable political divide, overall dissatisfaction with Bush is more pronounced among residents of the Northeast (80% disapprove), urban dwellers (62%), people with a college degree (63%), and also people earning less than $25,000 per year (65%). Half or more of under-30 voters disapprove of Bush's performance in four key areas: the economy, domestic issues, foreign policy and the war on terrorism, and Iraq. Disapproval of Bush's handing of domestic issues has slid back after a slight improvement in May, but the most noteworthy shifts are on international issues. In May, half (55%) of under-30 voters supported the President's handling of foreign policy issues and the war on terrorism. Now, half (52%) disapprove. Even more striking, six in ten young voters disapprove of Bush's handling of Iraq, and more than a third (37%) strongly disapprove. Democratic women (89% disapprove) and strong Kerry voters (92%) are angriest about Iraq, but there is also a higher level of disapproval among non-whites (79%), people in the Northeast (77%), unmarried voters (68%), and once again, those with lower household incomes (76%). The overall image that comes from this is that strong Bush supporters are almost impossible to move on the issues (98% support the President's handling of Iraq). However, there is space for Kerry to raise doubts among not only his weak supporters and undecided voters but also potentially among some weak Bush supporters (e.g., 42% disapprove of Bush's Iraq policy). [+] click to enlarge [+] click to enlarge Kerry has pulled back ahead of Bush among under-30 voters in the June poll, and is stronger now than a month ago. As the table below shows, half (53%) of declared Kerry supporters say they will "definitely" vote for their candidate in November, up from just over a third (37%) in May. Overall "strong" support from Kerry is also up from May (25% of all young registered voters, up from 16%). [+] click to enlarge [+] click to enlarge In contrast to Kerry's improved numbers, Nader's are slipping. From his initial double-digit showing in March, the trend over the past four months has been downward. In part, this may be because there is a greater-than-average awareness among some of his most likely supporters - younger, more educated, left-leaning voters - that voting for Nader actually helps Bush's chances for reelection. Strong Kerry supporters are most likely to see this link (46% help Bush). For the NEWSWEEK GENEXT Poll, Ipsos-Public Affairs interviewed 365 registered voters age 18 to 29, from June 1 to June 15. Some questions were asked of 351 voters April 5 to 18. The margin of error is plus or minus 5.1 percentage points. References to poll data on registered voters of all ages are from an AP/Ipsos poll conducted June 7-9 among 788 registered voters. That margin of error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Results reported in this release are from surveys conducted before Senator John Kerry (D-MA) selected Senator John Edwards (D-NC) as his running mate. Read the Newsweek.com Web Exclusive Report by Brian Braiker. Download the Topline Results here. For more information on this press release, please contact: Janice Bell Director, Ipsos Public Affairs Washington, D.C. 202.463.7300 About Ipsos Public Affairs Ipsos Public Affairs, headquartered in Washington D.C., is a non-partisan, objective, survey-based research company made up of campaign and political polling veterans as well as seasoned research professionals. The company conducts strategic research initiatives for a diverse number of American and international organizations, based not only on public opinion research but often elite stakeholder, corporate, and media opinion research. It has offices in New York City, Chicago, San Ramon (CA), and Washington, with affiliates around the world. Ipsos Public Affairs conducts national and international public opinion polling on behalf of The Associated Press, the world's oldest and largest news organization, and conducts the young voters poll for Newsweek.com. 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