AP/Ipsos CASH Index (Consumer Attitudes and Spending by Household)
Washington, D.C. - The Associated Press/Ipsos-Public Affairs CASH Index measuring consumer attitudes declined in November, reaching 89.8 from 97.4 in October. November is the third consecutive month in which the Index has fallen, erasing the rise in consumer confidence in August. The Index remains just above the level observed in late 2002 and much of 2003.
Concern About Economy's Direction
The decline in the CASH Index in November is primarily driven by deterioration in the Expectations Index, which stands at 89.9 -- down from 98.3 in October and 99.1 in September.
One of the key factors in the Expectations Index is where respondents think their local economy is headed. This month, there is a seven point rise in expectations that the local economy will weaken.
Similarly, there is also a greater expectation that personal financial situations will take a hit in the next six months.
Expectations show some relation to political outlook. Republicans are very positive about the future: 56% think the local economy will improve in the upcoming six months (52% in September, when the campaign was entering its final phase). Democrats are more likely now to expect the economy to weaken further; a majority (56%) of Democrats think conditions will remain the same.
Moderate Declines In Other Indicators Other components of the CASH Index show much smaller declines. The Jobs Index (103.9, 104.4 in October, 105.9 in September) is again down slightly. Although people's reported experience of job loss has remained stable, there is now an uptick in expectations of a riskier job market over the next six months.
There is comparatively more stability in the other two subindices. The Current Conditions Index (98.6, from 97.4) and the Investment Index (96, from 97.2) are within a point or two of October's measures, but down from September's buoyant level (102.6 and 100.7, respectively).
Methodology The Associated Press Poll is conducted by Ipsos-Public Affairs. Between November 3-5, 2004, the AP-Ipsos poll interviewed a representative sample of 1,000 adults nationwide. The margin of error is +/- 3.1 for all adults. Margin of error for subgroups may be higher.
The AP/Ipsos CASH Index is designed to provide a single, handy number that summarizes movement across an array of consumer attitudes, including current assessments and near-term expectations about the economy and personal finances, job security, confidence in the ability to save and invest for the future, and comfort level with making major purchases and other household purchases.
Ipsos CASH Index Surveys of consumers are conducted by Ipsos Public Affairs, the Washington, D.C.-based division of Ipsos, a leading global survey-based market research group. The Ipsos Consumer Attitudes and Spending by Household (CASH) Index polls are conducted the first and third week of every month, as part of Ipsos-Public Affairs weekly omnibus polling service. The Ipsos CASH Index, started in January 2002, is a bimonthly national survey of consumer attitudes on the current and future state of the local economy, personal financial situation and spending, saving and confidence to invest.For more information about the Ipsos CASH Index or to receive this report on the first and third week of every month, please e-mail [email protected], or contact Brian Scanlon at 202.463.2146. For more information on this press release, please contact: Janice Bell Director, Ipsos Public Affairs Washington, D.C. 202.463.7300
About Ipsos Public Affairs Ipsos Public Affairs, headquartered in Washington D.C., is a non-partisan, objective, survey-based research company made up of campaign and political polling veterans as well as seasoned research professionals. The company conducts strategic research initiatives for a diverse number of American and international organizations, based not only on public opinion research but often elite stakeholder, corporate, and media opinion research. It has offices in New York City, Chicago, San Ramon (CA), and Washington, with affiliates around the world. Ipsos Public Affairs conducts national and international public opinion polling on behalf of The Associated Press, the world's oldest and largest news organization, and conducts the young voters poll for Newsweek.com. Ipsos Public Affairs is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group.
To learn more, visit: www.ipsos-na.com/news/pa
About Ipsos Ipsos is a leading global survey-based market research company, owned and managed by research professionals. Ipsos helps interpret, simulate, and anticipate the needs and reactions of consumers, customers, and citizens around the world. Member companies assess market potential and interpret market trends. They develop and build brands. They help clients build long-term relationships with their customers. They test advertising and study audience responses to various media. They measure public opinion around the globe. Ipsos member companies offer expertise in advertising, customer loyalty, marketing, media, and public affairs research, as well as forecasting and modeling and consulting. Ipsos has a full line of custom, syndicated, omnibus, panel, and online research products and services, guided by industry experts and bolstered by advanced analytics and methodologies. The company was founded in 1975 and has been publicly traded since 1999. In 2003, Ipsos generated global revenues of $644.2 million U.S. To learn more, visit: www.ipsos.com Ipsos is listed on the Euronext Paris Premier Marchй, and is part of the SBF 120 and Next Prime Indices as well as eligible to the Deferred Settlement System (SRD). Euroclear code 7329, Reuters ISOS.LN, Bloomberg IPS FP
