Fewer than half of Americans confident about a peaceful post-election transition

Washington, DC, October 28, 2020 – According to a new Newsy/Ipsos poll, Americans are relatively split on whether or not there will be a peaceful transition period between Election Day and January 2021, though fewer than half are confident this will be the case. Most Americans expect to know the presidential election result within one week of Election Day, and around half would be confident in the validity of the results. Furthermore, a quarter of Americans would support President Trump staying in office if he were to lose the election and refuse to accept the results.

Detailed Findings   

Americans are skeptical of a peaceful transition period between Election Day and the beginning of the next presidential term in January.

• Overall, 41% are confident, while 45% are not. Democrats (36%) and Independents (31%) are dramatically less confident than Republicans (53%).
• A quarter of Americans (26%) would support President Trump staying in office if he were to lose the election in November and refuse the results as legitimate. This is statistically unchanged from July of this year (23%).
• A majority of Republicans (51%) support this, up slightly from 45% in July. They are significantly more likely to support this than Democrats (7%) or Independents (22%).

Two-thirds of Americans expect to know the result of the presidential election within one week of Election Day, November 3rd.

• A plurality of Americans (38%) expect to know the Presidential winner on Election Day or the day after. Another 27% think it will be announced within one week after Election Day.
• Half or more would have a fair amount or great deal of confidence in the results if they were to be announced a day after (54%), a week after (57%), or a month after Election Day (51%).
• Interestingly, confidence among Republicans diminishes the longer we will have to wait for election results, while confidence among Democrats grows. Sixty percent of Republicans report they will feel confident about election results announced on Election Day or the next day, and 49% say the same about results announced a month after. Among Democrats, 56% say they will feel confident with an announcement within two days, but their confidence peaks for results announced a week after Election Day (65%).
• Americans are less certain about polls. Forty percent are confident that public polls will accurately pick the winner of the presidential election, while 46% are not.

Of those who have not yet voted, a vast majority have already decided which presidential candidate they plan to vote for.

• Thirty-eight percent of Americans report having already voted, either by mail or in person. For those who have not yet voted, 87% have made up their minds already about which candidate to support.
• Fewer Independents are sure about their decision, with just over two-thirds (69%) saying they have decided (91% of Republicans and 92% of Democrats).

Most Americans have not been driven to purchase a gun due to political divisions or COVID-19 concerns.

• A majority of all Americans and gun owners disagree that U.S. political divisions (58% of Americans, 55% of gun owners) or COVID-19 concerns (67% of both) have caused them to consider purchasing a firearm.
• A quarter of gun owners have purchased additional guns since March of this year (24%), with 15% purchasing their first gun in the same time period.

Read the full Newsy article here. 

About the Study   

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between October 23-27, 2020, on behalf of Newsy. For this survey, a sample of 2,010 adults age 18+ from the continental U.S., Alaska, and Hawaii was interviewed online in English. The sample include 837 Republicans, 828 Democrats, and 218 independents. This poll is trended against a Newsy/Ipsos poll conducted between July 24-29, 2020, with a sample of 2,015 U.S. adults.

The sample for this study was randomly drawn from Ipsos’ online panel (see link below for more info on “Access Panels and Recruitment”), partner online panel sources, and “river” sampling (see link below for more info on the Ipsos “Ampario Overview” sample method) and does not rely on a population frame in the traditional sense. Ipsos uses fixed sample targets, unique to each study, in drawing a sample. After a sample has been obtained from the Ipsos panel, Ipsos calibrates respondent characteristics to be representative of the U.S. Population using standard procedures such as raking-ratio adjustments. The source of these population targets is U.S. Census 2018 American Community Survey data. The sample drawn for this study reflects fixed sample targets on demographics. Posthoc weights were made to the population characteristics on gender, age, race/ethnicity, region, and education.

Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online non-probability polls. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points for all respondents. Ipsos calculates a design effect (DEFF) for each study based on the variation of the weights, following the formula of Kish (1965). This study had a credibility interval adjusted for design effect of the following (n=2,010, DEFF=1.5, adjusted Confidence Interval=+/4.0 percentage points).

This poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points for Republicans, plus or minus 3.9 percentage points for Democrats, and plus or minus 7.6 percentage points for independents. The poll fielded between July 24-29, 2020, has a credibility interval of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.

For more information on this news release, please contact:     

Mallory Newall 
Director, US   
Public Affairs   
+1 202 420-2014   
[email protected]     

Kate Silverstein 
Media Relations Specialist, US   
Public Affairs   
+1 718 755-8829
[email protected] 

About Ipsos   

Ipsos is the world’s third largest market research company, present in 90 markets and employing more than 18,000 people.   

Our passionately curious research professionals, analysts and scientists have built unique multi-specialist capabilities that provide true understanding and powerful insights into the actions, opinions and motivations of citizens, consumers, patients, customers or employees. We serve more than 5000 clients across the world with 75 business solutions.   

Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos is listed on the Euronext Paris since July 1st, 1999. The company is part of the SBF 120 and the Mid-60 index and is eligible for the Deferred Settlement Service (SRD).    ISIN code FR0000073298, Reuters ISOS.PA, Bloomberg IPS:FP www.ipsos.com