Biden's dilemma
President Biden is in a bad spot. And things will most likely stay that way. Inflation, the issue hurting him the most right now, is not going anywhere. Plus, Covid—Biden’s strength—has receded quickly into the background.
Where does that leave the president and his party as the midterms close in? Right now, the political context seems to be drawing out Biden’s weaknesses with little room to maneuver in time for the fall. As a result, many analysts question the viability of Democrats’ control of Congress. We think the numbers best tell the story. Biden’s dilemma in five data points.
- Soft Numbers. Biden has not been able to bounce back following a summer where Afghanistan, COVID, and growing concerns about the economy took center stage. A president’s approval ratings are correlated with how well he does in the House. Low-40’s is bad news for the Democrats heading into the fall.
- Historical Context. Biden’s approval rating is below the historic average. He is largely on par with where Trump was at this point in his presidency: stuck in the low-40 doldrums. How does he climb out of that position? Win more than the base.
- Mirror Images. The base supports their presidents. A supermajority of Republicans backed Trump, and now a nearly identical share of Democrats approves of Biden’s job as president. More than just the base is needed to move the needle, though.
- Inflationary Agenda. Biden’s strongest issue right now is COVID-19. But, as our polling with Axios finds, many Americans aren't viewing this issue as a serious problem. What’s left then? The economy and that’s creating issues for Biden.
- No real inroads. With inflation putting price pressures on people, it’s not a surprise that the president is not polling well on his handling of the economy. Right now, Biden has no key pillar to stand on. All the issues he polls relatively well on are not as important to people right now. These are serious headwinds for Biden and the Democrats heading into the midterms.
As of now, the political conditions look grim for Democrats. They aren’t performing well on the main issue people care about: the economy. Biden’s approval is consistently low. History shows that the president’s party usually comes into the midterms at a disadvantage. How much of a disadvantage is the question for Biden and Democrats right now. But, with a little over six months away from voting, the picture isn’t pretty.
