How do Hispanics factor into U.S. politics?
Today, we released a new survey with the Washington Post on Hispanic Americans, exploring this diverse and nuanced group of people in the U.S.
Hispanics are a growing and changing group of voters who are at the heart of some of the most electorally salient questions in politics. Back in the 2010s, many thought that demographic replacement and the growing share of Hispanic voters would price Republicans out of electorally rich states like Texas and Florida, assuring Democratic victory.
But recent history has complicated that picture. In 2020, even as President Biden handily won the Hispanic vote, Trump made in roads with Hispanic voters in Florida and Southern Texas. Many key races this election cycle are happening in places where many voters are Hispanic.
To understand some of this, below are five charts on Hispanic Americans, how they see themselves and their politics.
- Population grows overtime. Hispanic Americans make up a larger and growing share of the overall population. Hispanic Americans made up just 5% of the overall U.S. population in 1970. Now, they make up about 19% of the total population. In relative and absolute numbers, Hispanic Americans are an increasingly large and important slice of the American population.
- Changing self-identity. Hispanic and Latino Americans represent a growing diverse ethnic group in the U.S, which is filtered through and reacting to the racial politics of America. Looking at Census data, more Hispanic Americans self-identify as white now than in 2000, with a significant share of people switching how they self-identify from ‘some other race’ to ‘white’ between the 2000 and 2010 Census. Now, a majority of Hispanic Americans self-identify as white.
- Divided Loyalty. Most Hispanic Americans, both registered voters and the total population, feel that the Democratic party, rather than the Republican party, represents their views and interests. Though, party loyalty to Democrats is not as unanimous for Hispanic Americans as it is for Black Americans, who are a stalwart part of the party’s base.
- Issue differentiation. Yet, the only issues where a near majority of Hispanic Americans trust the Democrats more than the Republicans are climate change and racial discrimination. On the other hand, more respondents trust the Republicans more than the Democrats on rising prices and split near even on crime. But, importantly, on most problems, just as many Hispanic Americans don’t have an opinion or don’t trust either party to do well on these issues. No side has entirely won over the Hispanic community.
- Bilingual advantage. On the generic Congressional ballot, Hispanic Americans break in interesting ways. Partisanship and religion play are important drivers of candidate support. What language people report being proficient in also pushes support for one party over another, with bilingual and Spanish speaking Hispanic Americans favoring Democrats over Republicans.
Even as Democrats hang onto advantages among Hispanic voters, Republicans are making gains. In practical terms, Hispanics aren’t necessarily a slam dunk for Democrats as demographic change continues in the U.S.
Hispanic voters are a heterogenous and complicated voting bloc, which, on the whole, falls somewhere between Democrats and Republicans. Hispanics must still be wooed if their loyalties are desired—the ultimate swing voters of our time. So much for demographic reductionism!
