Opinion Around The World: Nine-Country AP/Ipsos Poll On Terror

Washington, D.C. - Over the course of the past seven months, which have been marked by an escalation of armed resistance and terrorist attacks in Iraq, key international publics have become more likely to say the U.S.-led military action in Iraq has increased the threat of terrorism around the world. In February, Americans were divided on the effect of Iraq on terrorism (38% increased, 38% decreased); now a majority (52%) say the war in Iraq has aggravated the threat.

Two-thirds or more of adults in other surveyed countries also sense a heightened threat of terrorism arising from Iraq. The French (+18; to 72%) and Canadians (+14, to 67%) show the greatest rise in concern. Likewise, fears have also grown in Germany (+11), Britain (+9), Italy (+9), Mexico (+8), and Spain (+7), where attacks in Madrid on March 11 of this year killed 190 and injured more than 1,800. Two-thirds of Australians also see a link between Iraq and an increased threat of terrorism.

• Young adults aged 18 to 24 in Italy (83%), Spain (87%), and Australia (71%) are more likely to say U.S. military action in Iraq increased the threat of terrorism around the world. Americans between 25 and 34 share this view (60%).
• Supporters of opposition parties in countries such as Italy (87%), UK (80%), and Australia (82%) that have a military presence in Iraq are more likely to think the U.S. military actions increased the threat of international terrorism.
• Supporters of the governing Socialist Party in Spain (87%) say the military actions increased the terrorist threat.

The results suggest that the Iraq issue helps to define publics' attitudes toward how their own country's leader is handling "the war on terrorism." Americans and Australians are divided, although supporters of the governing parties in both countries voice strong approval (U.S. 88%; Australia 75%). Overall the British and Italians are negative of their leaders' anti-terrorism policies, although supporters of the current governing parties in Italy (75%) are more solidly behind Berlusconi's policy than British Labour Party supporters are behind Prime Minister Blair (45% approve).

By contrast, solid majorities in the countries which have taken a more skeptical position on Iraq -- Canada, Mexico, France, Germany and Spain -- approve of their leader's handling of terrorism. Supporters of the governing SPD/Green alliance in Germany (84%) and supporters of Zapatero's PSOE in Spain (83%) are especially likely to approve their leader's performance on this issue.

Publics in Spain (89%) and Italy (86%) are most worried about the threat of a terrorist attack in their own country; Spanish views in particular are affected by the threat of ETA violence as well as international sources. Seven in ten Americans and British worry about terrorist attacks, with a slight rise in concern since February. The largest rises in concern emerge in Italy (+16) and France (+15). Germans stand out in that they are somewhat less likely to worry now than earlier this year. Six in ten Australians are at least somewhat worried about the terrorist threat.

Perspectives from Ipsos Global Public Affairs Experts

Following are quotes from Ipsos Public Affairs experts. Overall, these international experts conclude that while world publics doubted the link between Iraq and terrorists before the war, at this point in time the two are inextricably linked. With the possible exception of Mexico, publics feel their own country is at risk of future attack.

John Wright from Ipsos-Reid in Canada comments that: The greatest concern that a majority of Canadians appear to share is around the continued military action in Iraq. Six months ago, half the public felt that U.S. military action was actually increasing the threat of terrorism and today that is now at seven in ten. Given this upswing, it's not surprising that almost half of Canadians are now worried about the threat of terrorism in their country compared to only 39% a few months back. It's clear that as the perception in Canada grows that terrorism is escalating as opposed to being extinguished in the region, Canadians own personal sense of vulnerability in the world is increasing as well.

John Wright Senior Vice President Ipsos Reid Phone: 1.416.324.2002 [email protected]

Jorge Buendia Laredo, head of Ipsos-Bimsa in Mexico, finds that: Mexicans' concerns about terrorism at home have increased slightly since February. Now, six out of ten interviewees are worried about the threat of terrorism. However, in comparison to other countries, Mexicans' concern with terrorism is relatively low. While Mexico has not been a target of terrorist attacks, Mexicans do not seem to be aware that sharing a long border with the U.S. increases the chance that our country will be used as a springboard by terrorists to enter into the U.S.

Jorge Buendia Laredo Director of Social Research Ipsos-Bimsa Phone: 52.55.11.01.00.55 [email protected]

Gilles Corman from Ipsos' office in Brussels, Belgium provides a pan-European perspective. The fear of terrorism is higher and especially increasing in countries actively involved in the war in Iraq: Italy, USA, UK (Spain also shows high figures on being worried about terrorism even though it withdrew its troops from Iraq, but this is due to the trauma of March 11). From a larger point of view, the proportion of people worried by the terrorist threat has increased in all countries except Mexico and Germany since the last survey wave. These figures mean that, whatever the actual results on the battlefield, the "war against terror" as it has been led until now is being lost in its psychological dimension - which is not a negligible aspect of the terrorist strategy. People do feel more and more insecure. In that respect, the large increase of the proportion of people worried about terrorism in France (+15) and Italy (+16), two countries facing hostage-taking in Iraq when the survey was carried out, confirms the impact of the hostage-taking strategy on public opinions in Western countries.

The war in Iraq is specially rated as inappropriate in terms of its contribution to the fight against terrorism. Unsurprisingly, it is the case in countries where the public opinion already thought before the war that this war was illegitimate namely because terrorism wasn't at stake in Iraq. It is much more striking to see that in countries where a majority supported the war (UK, USA), there is now a majority thinking that it feeds terrorism. In the context of the presidential campaign in the U.S., this is undeniably a blow for George W. Bush, since it shows that a majority of Americans don't agree with the main justification for his policy in Iraq.

Gilles Corman Director Ipsos-Inra Phone: 32.2.642.47.11 [email protected]

Likewise, Pierre Giacometti, co-leader of Global Public Affairs, argues that: Overall, terrorism and the war in Iraq are likely to stay at the center of public debate in most of the European countries in coming months.

Pierre Giacometti Ipsos France Country Manager/Joint Managing Director Phone: 33.1.41.98.90.60 [email protected]

Christian Holst, head of public affairs in Germany notes the impact of domestic debate: Two-thirds (68%) approval of Schroeder's handling of the war on terrorism is a very good value, firstly in comparative perspective (second only to Chirac in France), but also given his rather low overall ratings in Germany on his policy. Not quite surprisingly, Germany is the only country where the fear of the threat of terrorism has declined since February (minus 5 to 67% now).

Terrorism/War/Peace was last on the public agenda in April and has not been mentioned as one of the major subjects since. The internal discussion centers on the reform of the social system, labor regulation and health care system. Thus, terrorism has been gone out of perspective since then. However, most Germans are convinced that military action in Iraq has done more harm than good. It was Schroeder's promise that he would keep Germany out of Iraq, that won him the 2002 election and it has been a firm policy position ever since. This policy is widely supported in the public.

Christian Holst Director of Public Affairs Ipsos Germany Phone: 49.4542.801.206 [email protected]

CEO of Ipsos Italy, Nando Pagnoncelli, comments that in his country: The Italian population is highly concerned about the possibility of a terrorist attack in Italy. Concern has grown compared to last February (+15%) due to events that have involved Italy, more specifically the abduction and killing of a journalist and the abduction of two volunteers (subsequently released) on a humanitarian mission in Iraq. These events give the idea of being in a battle without any rules, where individuals playing a neutral role and even pacifists have become the target of attacks and violence. There is therefore great concern about possible attacks in Italy (42%), opposition to intervention (50%) and the conviction that military action in Iraq has increased the risk of terrorist attacks (74%).

Nando Pagnoncelli CEO and Managing Director Ipsos Italy Phone: 39.02.67330.451 [email protected]

Antonio Vera, head of public affairs in Spain, explains the special situation in that country: Just one out of five Spanish people are against Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero's handling on the war of terrorism. The support for his policy is extended in every strata of society. This support grows among young people and in a specific way among young women. Young people were a strong source of support for the PSOE (JLR. Zapatero) policy, against the PP (Aznar) policy, in the General Election on the 14th of March.

Spain is a very sensitive country in relation to terrorism issues due to ETA actions. If we also add the terrible strike conducted by the international terrorism with the attack in Madrid last March, it is no surprise that Spanish citizens are worried about this (89%). Although this concern is spread across the society, it rises among women and the elderly. The Spanish population did not approve of the Spanish presence in Iraq. In addition to this disapproval, Spanish population perceive a strong relation between the Spanish intervention in Iraq and the attack in Madrid days before the General Election and the increase of the threat of terrorism.

Antonio Vera Area Head Ipsos-Eco Consulting Phone: 34.91.767.21.99 [email protected]

Randall Pearce from Ipsos Public Affairs in Australia, observes that: Equal percentages of Australians as Americans disapprove of their leader's handling of the war on terrorism. Although the percentage of Australians supporting Prime Minister John Howard at 44% is significantly lower than the support enjoyed by U.S. President George Bush at 50%, three quarters of Howard's Coalition voters approve. Opposition to the government's handling of the war is highest among supporters of The Greens. Despite recent agreements for Green preferences to flow to the opposition Labor Party under Australia's preferential voting system, the secondary votes are not expected to deny the Howard government a fourth election victory on Saturday.

This pre-election poll by Ipsos Australia correctly predicted a win for Prime Minister Howard's governing Liberal/National coalition. While pre- and post-election reports focused on the role of the economy in Howard's re-election, seven in ten voters said that the situation in Iraq would impact how they cast their vote. While few (3%) said it was the one single issue that would determine their vote, another two-thirds said it was either "a major issue" (33%) or "a minor issue" (33%) among many. Only 29% said it would have no impact at all on how they would vote.

Australians are closely divided on their government's decision to support the United States in Iraq. Half (45%) say the Australian government made the right decision, while half (48%) say it made a mistake. Most Coalition supporters say it was the right decision (73%), while Australian Labour Party (69%) and Green Party (83%) supporters say it was a mistake.

Randall Pearce General Manager Ipsos Australia Phone: 6.1.2.9954.0319 [email protected]

To view the complete filled-in questionnaire for this survey, please click on the Topline Results pdf at the top of this page.

For more information on this press release, please contact: Janice Bell Director, Ipsos Public Affairs Washington, D.C. 202.463.7300

About Ipsos Public Affairs Ipsos Public Affairs, headquartered in Washington D.C., is a non-partisan, objective, survey-based research company made up of campaign and political polling veterans as well as seasoned research professionals. The company conducts strategic research initiatives for a diverse number of American and international organizations, based not only on public opinion research but often elite stakeholder, corporate, and media opinion research. It has offices in New York City, Chicago, San Francisco, and Washington, with affiliates around the world. Ipsos Public Affairs conducts national and international public opinion polling on behalf of The Associated Press, the world's oldest and largest news organization, and conducts the young voters poll for Newsweek.com. Ipsos Public Affairs is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group.

To learn more, visit: www.ipsos-na.com/news/pa

About Ipsos Ipsos is a leading global survey-based market research company, owned and managed by research professionals. Ipsos helps interpret, simulate, and anticipate the needs and reactions of consumers, customers, and citizens around the world. Member companies assess market potential and interpret market trends. They develop and build brands. They help clients build long-term relationships with their customers. They test advertising and study audience responses to various media. They measure public opinion around the globe. Ipsos member companies offer expertise in advertising, customer loyalty, marketing, media, and public affairs research, as well as forecasting and modeling and consulting. Ipsos has a full line of custom, syndicated, omnibus, panel, and online research products and services, guided by industry experts and bolstered by advanced analytics and methodologies. The company was founded in 1975 and has been publicly traded since 1999. In 2003, Ipsos generated global revenues of $644.2 million U.S. To learn more, visit: www.ipsos.com Ipsos is listed on the Euronext Paris Premier Marchй, and is part of the SBF 120 and Next Prime Indices as well as eligible to the Deferred Settlement System (SRD). Euroclear code 7329, Reuters ISOS.LN, Bloomberg IPS FP more 187