Out with the old, in with the new

The tides are changing.

President Joe Biden is set to hand off power to President-elect Donald Trump next Monday, likely marking an end to Biden’s multi-decade political career and a revival of Trump’s short yet prolific stint in politics.

Biden’s presidency was largely defined both by a wave of historic inflation and a botched re-election campaign that ultimately resulted in Trump’s second Presidential victory.

With his presidency entering its final days, where do Americans stand on his presidency? Below are five charts on where Biden’s popularity stands compared to other presidents, what cratered his popularity, and where Trump may stand entering office.

1. Middle of the pack. Biden’s approval rating has been on a steady decline after he entered office in 2021. Biden is likely to leave office with a sub 40% approval rating, which would put him near the middle of the pack in terms of final approval ratings among recent presidents.
2. Inflation and time. In some ways, the 2024 election was a story directed by inflation. Rising costs are also a key reason Americans soured on the Biden administration. This decline was also accompanied by a waning “honeymoon” effect that incoming presidents see as they enter office.
3. Policy retrospective. Biden was elected in part to deal with the COVID-19 pandemic. But once the pandemic left Americans’ minds, Biden wasn’t able to win over the public on other policy areas.
4. Looking ahead. Trump did not have a high approval rating in his time as president, with his approval rating hovering around 40% both when he entered office and when he left. But early signals suggest that Trump may enter office with a more positive reception.
5. Importance of approval. Biden’s low approval rating was likely a key indicator that his successor, Vice President Kamala Harris, would face an uphill battle after taking over for Biden. For Trump, maintaining a high approval rating will be critical in paving a way for his successor. Trump’s initial approval won’t matter as much as where his approval heads once he’s in office. Stay posted.

As we await the first Trump approval rating numbers, it will be important to remember that early approval ratings don’t mean much. Where Trump’s approval stands 100 days into his presidency may paint a better picture of how Americans feel about his administration.

It will also be worth watching whether Trump’s more ambitious policies, like mass deportations or tariffs, put his standing with the American public at odds, particularly among independents and moderate Republicans. Similarly, things like wars, rising prices, rising unemployment, or scandals also loom as potentially administration-defining events.

Though Trump is entering his second and final term in office, having (and holding) a high approval rating will still be key for his political future, both in shaping the 2026 midterms and in paving a path forward for his successor. Watch this space.