Three in five Americans say Trump should stand trial before the Republican primaries or 2024 general election

Washington DC, August 25, 2023— New Politico Magazine/Ipsos polling finds that most Americans feel former President Donald Trump should stand trial for the federal 2020 election subversion case before the Republican primaries in early 2024 or before the general election in November 2024, something that has held steady between the sensitive documents case and the 2020 election subversion case. However, compared to Politico Magazine/Ipsos June polling, slightly fewer Americans say they understand the charges against Trump, even as a majority say they understand the various cases.

Still, most feel that the Justice Department’s decision to indict Trump in the 2020 election subversion case is rooted in a fair evaluation of the evidence and law. Separately, most Americans think that Hunter Biden is guilty of the alleged crimes in his tax non-payment case. 

Detailed findings:

1. A majority of Americans say they understand the charges against Trump.

• Roughly three in five Americans say they understand the various cases against Trump somewhat or very well.
• However, that represents a slight drop from the June 2023 Politico/Ipsos poll, when roughly two in three Americans reported understanding the various cases against Trump somewhat or very well.

2. Most Americans feel the federal trial on Trump’s 2020 election subversion case should happen before the Republican primaries in early 2024 and ahead of the general election in November 2024.

• Attitudes towards trial timing remain steady between the sensitive documents and the federal election subversion case. Fifty-nine percent of Americans feel the federal election subversion trial should happen before the primaries in early 2024, while 57% feel the sensitive documents trial should occur before the Republican primaries.
• Three in five Americans (61%) think the 2020 federal election subversion case against Donald Trump should happen before the general election. Similarly, for the sensitive documents case, 62% of Americans feel that Trump should stand trial before the 2024 general election in November 2024.
• However, that stability hides a deepening partisan split. Fewer Republicans now say Trump should stand trial before the general election in November 2024 (33% in August 2023 say he should for the 2020 election subversion case vs. 46% in June 2023 for the sensitive documents case).
• But, more independents now feel that Trump should stand trial before November 2024. Sixty-three percent of independents feel Trump should stand trial before the 2024 presidential election in November 2024, while 14% think he should not, and 22% do not know (1% skipped the question). In June, 48% of independents thought Trump should stand trial before November 2024, 18% felt he should not, and 34% were not sure.
• Democratic opinion is constant, with most feeling he should stand trial before November 2024.

3. More Americans believe the Justice Department came to their decision to indict Trump in the 2020 election case through a fair evaluation of the evidence and the law, not as a way to gain political advantage for Joe Biden.

• A majority agree that “The Justice Department’s decision to indict Trump in the 2020 election subversion case was based on a fair evaluation of the evidence and the law” at 59%. 
• However, a significant minority (44%) agree that “The Justice Department’s decision to indict Trump in the 2020 election subversion case was based on trying to gain a political advantage for Joe Biden.” 
• There are significant partisan differences here.

4. Most Americans believe that Hunter Biden is guilty of the alleged crimes in the tax non-payment case.

• About three in five Americans (59%) say Hunter Biden is guilty of the alleged crimes in the tax non-payment case. Only 2% of Americans think he is not guilty. Instead, all other Americans are not sure.
• Majorities across parties agree that Hunter Biden is guilty of the alleged crimes in the tax non-payment case (77% among Republicans, 57% independents, and 51% among Democrats). 

About the Study

This Ipsos poll was conducted August 18-21, 2023 on behalf of Politico Magazine, using the probability based KnowledgePanel®. This poll is based on a representative sample of 1,032 U.S. residents, age 18 or older, including 272 Republican respondents, 321 Democratic respondents, and 319 independent respondents.

The study was conducted online in English. The data for the total sample were weighted to adjust for gender by age, race/ethnicity, education, Census region, metropolitan status, household income, and political party affiliation. The demographic benchmarks came from the 2022 March Supplement of the Current Population Survey (CPS). Party ID benchmarks are from recent ABC News/Washington Post telephone polls. The weighting categories were as follows:

• Gender (Male, Female) by Age (18–29, 30–44, 45-59 and 60+)
• Race/Hispanic Ethnicity (White Non-Hispanic, Black Non-Hispanic, Other, Non-Hispanic, Hispanic, 2+ Races, Non-Hispanic)
• Education (Less than High School, High School, Some College, Bachelor or higher)
• Census Region (Northeast, Midwest, South, West)
• Metropolitan status (Metro, non-Metro)
• Household Income (Under $25,000, $25,000-$49,999, $50,000-$74,999, $75,000-$99,999, $100,000-$149,999, $150,000+)
• Party ID (Democrat, Republican, Independent, Something else)

The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.2 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, for results based on the entire sample of adults. The margin of error takes into account the design effect, which was 1.08 for all adults. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 6.2 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, for results based on the sample of Republicans. The margin of error takes into account the design effect, which was 1.08 for Republicans. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 5.8 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, for results based on the sample of Democrats. The margin of error takes into account the design effect, which was 1.11 for Democrats. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 5.7 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, for results based on the sample of independents. The margin of error takes into account the design effect, which was 1.09 for independents. In our reporting of the findings, percentage points are rounded off to the nearest whole number. As a result, percentages in a given table column may total slightly higher or lower than 100%. In questions that permit multiple responses, columns may total substantially more than 100%, depending on the number of different responses offered by each respondent.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Chris Jackson
Senior Vice President, US
Public Affairs
+1 202 420-2025
[email protected]

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