Cliff’s Take: Mass Protest Against Inequality Changes Political Calculus

We are going into the third week of protests with little let up. According to our polling with Axios, we estimate that approximately 2% of the population, or 5 million Americans, have gone to the street to call for reform after George Floyd’s murder.

In my opinion, the protests are more likely to determine who will be the denizen of the White House in 2021 than COVID-19.  Will they invigorate the Democratic base and scare away moderate suburban Republicans?  We shall see.

Below I detail the most relevant data of the week.  Here, I share polling as well as non-polling data.

1. Protests, protests everywhere. Two days ago, we published our George Floyd protest map with USA Today.  We are witnessing a social movement spontaneously emerge before our eyes.  To date, we have identified over 1,400 protests—most of which have been non-violent.  And they are occurring in every nook and cranny of America.  Will this translate to the ballot box?  Probably not. But the longer they last and the more pervasive they are, the greater their impact. 

    

2. Law and order by half. About half the population stands on the side of the strong arm of the law. The racial and partisan divides are absolutely striking. Again, it’s a tale of two Americas.  The enforcement of “law and order” obviously is being experienced unequally across America.  For some, it means stability; for others, brutality. 

    

3. Police reform yes; dismantling police no! A supermajority of Americans support police reform.  Look at the data.  There is fertile ground for compromise.  More so than you would think in our partisan COVID-19 world. 

    

4. “Defund the Police” movement politically fraught. The data is clear. Only a plurality of Americans support defunding the police.  But a majority of Democrats and African Americans do.  Will this be a key motivator in the 2020 presidential election?  It is shaping up to be. This is good for Trump; bad for Biden. 

    

5. Trump losing his shine. The last few weeks have been rough for Trump.  Only 33% of Americans approve of his handling of the George Floyd protests.  His overall approval numbers are down to 39%.  Not a great place.  Remember that a sitting president with an approval rating at 40-points or more has better 50/50 chance of winning the next election.  Trump’s electoral chances are eroding. Let’s see if this trend continues. 

    

Take a look at my most recent interview with Morning Briefing’s Tim Farley for a synthesis of the above. Again, be healthy.  Be safe. These are painful, trying times.  Let’s listen more and talk less. 

For more information, please contact:

Clifford Young

President, U.S.
Public Affairs
+1 202 420-2016
[email protected]

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