Reuters/Ipsos Data: Core Political (10/31/2018)

Turnout will be likely be the deciding factor in which party wins the House and Senate in next week's election.

Reuters/Ipsos Data: Core Political (10/31/2018)

The author(s)

  • Chris Jackson Vice President, US, Public Affairs
  • Annaleise Azevedo Lohr Senior Account Manager, US, Public Affairs
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Washington, D.C. – In our final Core Political release before next week’s midterm elections, the Reuters/Ipsos poll finds that Democrats remain positioned to make gains across the country. However, if this election will be the ‘blue wave’ hyped for much of the year or just a blue ripple will come down to small differences in relative turnout between the Republican and Democratic bases and a small number of late deciding voters.

Our last pre-election national poll shows Democrats continuing to hold a seven-point lead on the generic congressional ballot among likely voters with a significant block of undecided voters (49% Democrat, 42% Republican, 3% other, 6% don’t know). Partisans are almost entirely unified in intention to vote for their ticket (93% of Democrats vs 91% of Republicans) with the plurality of Independent voters supporting the Democrats (38% to 22% voting Republican).

Ipsos, along with Reuters and the University of Virginia Center for Politics, has also released our final round of state polls this morning. We find Florida trending blue, Arizona trending Red, and the Kansas governor’s race a tossup. However, all remain extremely close. These polls can be found on our website at www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/. The summation of our twenty state polls this cycle show that races across the South and Southwest remain highly competitive, but the Midwest states of the “blue wall” look to be swinging back towards the Democratic Party.

Speaking of President Trump, his approval rating remains stable at 41% this week among all Americans. Republicans remain strongly behind the President with 87% approving of his job performance, including 57% strongly approving. Along with the President, the main issues defining this election continue to be healthcare (for Democrats) and immigration (for Republicans).

About this Study

These are findings from an Ipsos poll conducted for Thomson Reuters between September 11, 2018. For the survey, a sample of 2,274 Americans, including 1,383 likely voters, 636 likely voter Democrats, 591 likely voter Republicans, and 115 likely voter Independents ages 18+ were interviewed online. The precision of the Reuters/Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 2.2 percentage points for all adults, 3.0 percentage points for likely voters, 4.4 percentage points for likely voter Democrats, 4.6 percentage points for likely voter Republicans, and 10.4 percentage points for likely voter Independents. For more information about credibility intervals, please see the appendix.

The data were weighted to the U.S. current population data by gender, age, education, and ethnicity. Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online non-probability polls. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. Figures marked by an asterisk (*) indicate a percentage value of greater than zero but less than one half of one per cent. Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding. To see more information on this and other Reuters/Ipsos polls, please visit http://polling.reuters.com/.

The data were weighted to the U.S. current population data by gender, age, education, and ethnicity. Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online polls. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. Figures marked by an asterisk (*) indicate a percentage value of greater than zero but less than one half of one per cent. Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding. To see more information on this and other Reuters/Ipsos polls, please visit http://polling.reuters.com/.

For more information on this news release please contact:

Clifford Young
President, U.S.
Ipsos Public Affairs
202.420.2016
clifford.young@ipsos.com

Chris Jackson
Vice President, U.S.
Ipsos Public Affairs
202.420.2011
chris.jackson@ipsos.com

About Ipsos Public Affairs

Ipsos Public Affairs is a non-partisan, objective, survey-based research practice made up of seasoned professionals. We conduct strategic research initiatives for a diverse number of American and international organizations, based not only on public opinion research, but elite stakeholder, corporate, and media opinion research.

Ipsos has media partnerships with the most prestigious news organizations around the world. In Canada, the U.S., UK, and internationally, Ipsos Public Affairs is the media polling supplier to Reuters News, the world's leading source of intelligent information for businesses and professionals. Ipsos Public Affairs is a member of the Ipsos Group, a leading global survey-based market research company. We provide boutique-style customer service and work closely with our clients, while also undertaking global research.

About Ipsos

Ipsos is an independent market research company controlled and managed by research professionals. Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos has grown into a worldwide research group with a strong presence in all key markets. Ipsos ranks fourth in the global research industry.

With offices in 89 countries, Ipsos delivers insightful expertise across five research specializations: brand, advertising and media; customer loyalty; marketing; public affairs research; and survey management.

Ipsos researchers assess market potential and interpret market trends. They develop and build brands. They help clients build long-term relationships with their customers. They test advertising and study audience responses to various media and they measure public opinion around the globe.

Ipsos has been listed on the Paris Stock Exchange since 1999 and generated global revenues of €1,780.5 million in 2017.

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The author(s)

  • Chris Jackson Vice President, US, Public Affairs
  • Annaleise Azevedo Lohr Senior Account Manager, US, Public Affairs

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