Reuters/Ipsos Issues Survey July 2023

Trump maintains his lead in the primary, and a general election matchup between Biden and Trump is tied

The author(s)
  • Chris Jackson Senior Vice President, US, Public Affairs
  • Annaleise Azevedo Lohr Director, US, Public Affairs
  • Charlie Rollason Research Manager, US, Public Affairs
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Washington, DC, July 20, 2023 -- A new Reuters/Ipsos poll finds that former President Donald Trump continues to maintain a double-digit lead in the Republican primary race. The poll also shows that Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has not shifted in the field since the launch of his formal presidential campaign. Support for a relatively unknown candidate, Vivek Ramaswamy, has grown since our last poll in June, but it remains low. The survey also shows a nuanced issues landscape for American voters.

Republican 2024 Primary Bar Graph

Detailed Findings:

Former President Donald Trump is leading the race for the Republican presidential nomination with 47% of the vote share among Republicans, up four points since June (43%). Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is in a distant second place with 19% of the Republican vote share. Entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy has 9% of the Republican vote share, up six points since June (3%), and Mike Pence has 7%, unchanged from June. All other candidates are currently polling at three percent of the Republican vote share or below. In a theoretical general election horserace, Joe Biden (41%) and Donald Trump (38%) are statistically tied among registered voters. In a matchup between Biden (36%), Trump (33%) and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (19%), Biden and Trump are again statistically tied among registered voters. When adding Vivek Ramaswamy (15%) as a third-party candidate, Biden (39%) holds a slight edge over Trump (32%) among registered voters.

Republican 2024 Primary Bar and Line Graphs

When it comes to the issues, there is a complicated landscape for presidential candidates as Americans commonly support positions from both parties. Two-thirds of Americans say they are less likely to support a candidate who supports laws that ban or severely restrict abortion access (65%). Americans are more likely to support a candidate who supports increasing police funding to fight crime (75%), supports tougher measures to secure the U.S. border (71%), continues to support Ukraine with military aid (61%), and supports passing stricter gun laws (64%).

When asked about the importance of certain issues, four in five Americans say that society making it increasingly difficult for a person to speak their mind (79%), the legal status of abortion access in their state (78%), and the growing gap between the wealthy and average Americans (77%) are important. These issues have the highest level of importance among all that were polled. Democrats are seen as performing better on abortion access (40%) compared to Republicans (27%). Democrats (32%) also have a slight edge over Republicans (27%) when it comes to the growing wealth gap, and Republicans (31%) have a slight edge over Democrats (27%) about society making it increasingly difficult for a person to speak their mind.

Political Party Performance on Key Issues Vertical Stacked Bar Charts

About the Study

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between July 11-17, 2023 on behalf of Thomson Reuters. For this survey, a sample of 4,414 adults age 18+ from the continental U.S., Alaska, and Hawaii was interviewed online in English. The sample also includes 2,044 Democrats, 1,640 Republicans, and 508 independents.

The sample was randomly drawn from Ipsos’ online panel, partner online panel sources, and “river” sampling and does not rely on a population frame in the traditional sense. Ipsos uses fixed sample targets, unique to each study, in drawing a sample. After a sample has been obtained from the Ipsos panel, Ipsos calibrates respondent characteristics to be representative of the U.S. Population using standard procedures such as raking-ratio adjustments. The source of these population targets is U.S. Census 2022 American Community Survey data. The sample drawn for this study reflects fixed sample targets on demographics. Posthoc weights were made to the population characteristics on gender, age, race/ethnicity, region, education and political party affiliation. 

Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online non-probability polls. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 1.8 percentage points for all respondents. Ipsos calculates a design effect (DEFF) for each study based on the variation of the weights, following the formula of Kish (1965). This study had a credibility interval adjusted for design effect of the following (n=4,414, DEFF=1.5, adjusted Confidence Interval=+/-3.3 percentage points).

The poll also has a credibility interval of plus or minus 2.7 percentage points for Democrats, plus or minus 3.0 percentage points for Republicans, and plus or minus 5.3 percentage points for independents.   

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Chris Jackson

Senior Vice President, US

Public Affairs

+1 202 420-2025

[email protected]

Annaleise Azevedo Lohr

Director

Public Affairs

[email protected]

About Ipsos

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Our passionately curious research professionals, analysts and scientists have built unique multi-specialist capabilities that provide true understanding and powerful insights into the actions, opinions and motivations of citizens, consumers, patients, customers or employees. Our 75 solutions are based on primary data from our surveys, social media monitoring, and qualitative or observational techniques.

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Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos has been listed on the Euronext Paris since July 1, 1999. The company is part of the SBF 120 and Mid-60 indices and is eligible for the Deferred Settlement Service (SRD).ISIN code FR0000073298, Reuters ISOS.PA, Bloomberg IPS:FP

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The author(s)
  • Chris Jackson Senior Vice President, US, Public Affairs
  • Annaleise Azevedo Lohr Director, US, Public Affairs
  • Charlie Rollason Research Manager, US, Public Affairs

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