Reuters/Ipsos Survey: Perceptions of the economy impact Biden's approval and chances in 2024

In a hypothetical 2024 match-up between Biden and Trump, the race is too close to call.

The author(s)
  • Annaleise Azevedo Lohr Director, US, Public Affairs
  • Chris Jackson Senior Vice President, US, Public Affairs
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Washington DC, August 7, 2023 — A new Reuters/Ipsos poll finds that President Joe Biden's approval rating and intentions to vote for him in the 2024 presidential election are impacted by American's perceptions of the economy and their own personal well-being. The survey shows that economic issues - namely inflation - are the most pressing problems of the day for most Americans. The survey also shows that many Americans feel worse off from the past several years. Ultimately, in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup against former President Donald Trump, the race is very close.

Detailed findings:

Economic issues are the most important issues for most Americans. Many are unaware of much of the legislation that has been passed since Biden became president.

  • Forty-nine percent of Americans say that inflation or increasing costs are the most important issues facing the country, 9% cite unemployment and 10% cite economic inequality.  
  • Sixty-four percent of Americans say the economy is worse off compared to 2020, while seventy-three percent of Americans say the economy is worse off compared to five years ago. About two in five of Americans say they feel worse off from five years ago generally (38%) and a similar number say they feel worse off compared to 2020 (37%). 
  • A majority of Americans say that President Biden and his administration are not doing enough when it comes to investing in the economy (56%) and reducing economic inequality (52%). 
  • Most Americans say they are familiar with high inflation since 2022 to now (80%), but just 46% of Americans are familiar with the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act and 39% are familiar are with the 2021 Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act. 
  • Most Americans support the economic policies in the legislation, including 88% who support federal investment in building or repairing national roads, bridges, rail lines, ports and other infrastructure and 62% support federal investment in clean energy and promoting adoption of electric vehicles. 

When it comes to the 2024 presidential election, in a hypothetical horserace between President Biden and former President Donald Trump, the race is too close to call, with 33% of Americans saying they would vote for Joe Biden and 35% saying they would vote for Donald Trump.  

  • In a hypothetical Democratic primary with Joe Biden not running for re-election, Democrats are most likely to say they support Kamala Harris for the position (20%), followed by Pete Buttigieg (13%) and Bernie Sanders (13%).
  • More than half of Americans say that Joe Biden is too old to be president and he should let another Democrat run (65%), including 47% of Democrats.

About the Study

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between July 28-August 1, 2023 on behalf of Thomson Reuters. For this survey, a sample of 2,009 adults age 18+ from the continental U.S., Alaska, and Hawaii was interviewed online in English. The sample also includes 859 Democrats, 731 Republicans, and 255 independents.

The sample was randomly drawn from Ipsos’ online panel, partner online panel sources, and “river” sampling and does not rely on a population frame in the traditional sense. Ipsos uses fixed sample targets, unique to each study, in drawing a sample. After a sample has been obtained from the Ipsos panel, Ipsos calibrates respondent characteristics to be representative of the U.S. Population using standard procedures such as raking-ratio adjustments. The source of these population targets is U.S. Census 2022 American Community Survey data. The sample drawn for this study reflects fixed sample targets on demographics. Post hoc weights were made to the population characteristics on gender, age, race/ethnicity, region, education and political party affiliation. 

Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online non-probability polls. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 2.7 percentage points for all respondents. Ipsos calculates a design effect (DEFF) for each study based on the variation of the weights, following the formula of Kish (1965). This study had a credibility interval adjusted for design effect of the following (n=2,009, DEFF=1.5, adjusted Confidence Interval=+/- 4.2 percentage points).

The poll also has a credibility interval of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points for Democrats, plus or minus 4.4 percentage points for Republicans, and plus or minus 7.5 percentage points for independents.   

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Chris Jackson

Senior Vice President, U.S.

Public Affairs

[email protected]

Annaleise Azevedo Lohr

Director, U.S.

Public Affairs

[email protected]

About Ipsos

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Our passionately curious research professionals, analysts and scientists have built unique multi-specialist capabilities that provide true understanding and powerful insights into the actions, opinions and motivations of citizens, consumers, patients, customers or employees. Our 75 solutions are based on primary data from our surveys, social media monitoring, and qualitative or observational techniques.

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The author(s)
  • Annaleise Azevedo Lohr Director, US, Public Affairs
  • Chris Jackson Senior Vice President, US, Public Affairs