Reuters/Ipsos Survey: Post Republican Debate August 2023

Washington DC, August 25, 2023 — The latest Reuters/Ipsos survey fielding in the day after the first Republican presidential debate shows that Donald Trump maintains his lead among Republicans for the nomination, while DeSantis remains a distance second place. The survey also shows that Republicans are more likely to say that they would vote for Donald Trump if he were to be convicted of a felony or were serving time in prison that they were at the beginning of the month. 

Detailed findings:

Despite indictments, former President Donald Trump continues to lead the Republican primary field. 

• Former President Donald Trump continues to lead the Republican primary field (52%). At the same time, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis’ support has remained stagnant at 13% from earlier this month, but a six-point drop from mid-July. 
• Two in five Republicans (44%) would vote for Trump if he were to be convicted of a felony by a jury, compared to just over one in three (35%) say they would support him in the beginning of the month. More than half of Americans would not support Trump if he were to be convicted of a felony (58%).
• Similarly, 44% of Republicans said they would vote Trump if he were serving time in prison, up from 28% of Republicans who said the same earlier this month.

Despite Donald Trump maintaining his lead, more than half of Republicans who had watched or heard coverage of the debate (51%) say they are somewhat or much more likely to consider support Ron DeSantis after his debate performance and two in five say the same about Vivek Ramaswamy (44%), while 37% say the same about Nikki Haley. 

About the Study

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between August 24-25, 2023 on behalf of Thomson Reuters. For this survey, a sample of 1,005 adults age 18+ from the continental U.S., Alaska, and Hawaii was interviewed online in English. The sample also includes 445 Democrats, 347 Republicans, and 110 independents.

The sample was randomly drawn from Ipsos’ online panel, partner online panel sources, and “river” sampling and does not rely on a population frame in the traditional sense. Ipsos uses fixed sample targets, unique to each study, in drawing a sample. After a sample has been obtained from the Ipsos panel, Ipsos calibrates respondent characteristics to be representative of the U.S. Population using standard procedures such as raking-ratio adjustments. The source of these population targets is U.S. Census 2022 American Community Survey data. The sample drawn for this study reflects fixed sample targets on demographics. Post hoc weights were made to the population characteristics on gender, age, race/ethnicity, region, education and political party affiliation. 

Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online non-probability polls. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points for all respondents. Ipsos calculates a design effect (DEFF) for each study based on the variation of the weights, following the formula of Kish (1965). This study had a credibility interval adjusted for design effect of the following (n=1,004, DEFF=1.5, adjusted Confidence Interval=+/-5.3 percentage points).

The poll also has a credibility interval of plus or minus 5.7 percentage points for Democrats, plus or minus 6.4 percentage points for Republicans, and plus or minus 11.4 percentage points for independents.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Chris Jackson
Senior Vice President, U.S.

Public Affairs
[email protected]

Annaleise Azevedo Lohr
Director, U.S.
Public Affairs
[email protected]

About Ipsos

Ipsos is one of the largest market research and polling companies globally, operating in 90 markets and employing over 18,000 people.

Our passionately curious research professionals, analysts and scientists have built unique multi-specialist capabilities that provide true understanding and powerful insights into the actions, opinions and motivations of citizens, consumers, patients, customers or employees. Our 75 solutions are based on primary data from our surveys, social media monitoring, and qualitative or observational techniques.

Our tagline "Game Changers" sums up our ambition to help our 5,000 customers move confidently through a rapidly changing world.

Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos has been listed on the Euronext Paris since July 1, 1999. The company is part of the SBF 120 and Mid-60 indices and is eligible for the Deferred Settlement Service (SRD).ISIN code FR0000073298, Reuters ISOS.PA, Bloomberg IPS:FP