Reuters/Ipsos Survey: Trump Indictment and the 2024 Republican Primary

Washington, DC, April 3, 2023– The latest Reuters/Ipsos survey conducted following news of Donald Trump's criminal indictment shows that Republicans continue to support Donald Trump as their favorite candidate for the 2024 presidential primary. This wave also shows an increasing number of Republicans reporting they find it believable that Trump did pay Stormy Daniels so she would not talk about their extramarital relationship during the 2016 presidential election. While large majorities may find many accusations against Trump to be believable, many Americans also say the criminal indictment of Donald Trump is politically motivated, unchanged from last wave. 

Detailed Findings

Donald Trump continues to show his resilience as a candidate, with 48% of Republicans reporting they would support Trump in the primary for president, despite his criminal indictment and impending arraignment. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis remains a distant second, and his support has dropped eleven points since mid-March (30%) to just 19%.  A majority of Republicans believe that the indictment of Donald Trump will only help him win the presidency in 2024 (53%), while independents (32%) and Democrats (24%) are less likely to agree. More than half say the indictment of Donald Trump on criminal charges is politically motivated (51%), statistically unchanged from last wave (54%). Seventy-one percent of Americans say it is believable that Donald Trump paid Stormy Daniels so she would not talk about their extramarital relationship during the 2016 presidential election. This number is up eight points among Republicans (58%) from last wave (50%). Most Americans agree that Donald Trump is not above the law (84%), but this number has dropped four points since last wave (88%). Eight in ten Americans say Donald Trump should stand trial if he broke the law (83%) including 92% of Democrats, 78% of Republicans, and 77% of independents. 

The poll also found that three in five Americans are concerned about political persecution against people in their community (61%), and 65% are concerned about acts of violence against people in their community because of their political beliefs. Interestingly, Democrats are more likely to say they are "very concerned" about political persecution and acts of politically-motivated violence (42% and 45% respectively) than Republicans (30% and 33% respectively).

About the Study

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between March 31– April 3, 2023 on behalf of Thomson Reuters. For this survey, a sample of 2,005 adults age 18+ from the continental U.S., Alaska, and Hawaii was interviewed online in English. The sample includes 845 Democrats, 706 Republicans and 252 independents.

The sample was randomly drawn from Ipsos’ online panel, partner online panel sources, and “river” sampling and does not rely on a population frame in the traditional sense. Ipsos uses fixed sample targets, unique to each study, in drawing a sample. After a sample has been obtained from the Ipsos panel, Ipsos calibrates respondent characteristics to be representative of the U.S. Population using standard procedures such as raking-ratio adjustments. The source of these population targets is U.S. Census 2022 American Community Survey data. The sample drawn for this study reflects fixed sample targets on demographics. Post hoc weights were made to the population characteristics on gender, age, race/ethnicity, region, and education.

Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online non-probability polls. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 2.7 percentage points for all respondents. Ipsos calculates a design effect (DEFF) for each study based on the variation of the weights, following the formula of Kish (1965). This study had a credibility interval adjusted for design effect of the following (n=2,005, DEFF=1.5, adjusted Confidence Interval=+/-4.2 percentage points).

The poll also has a credibility interval of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points for Democrats, plus or minus 4.5 percentage points for Republicans, and plus or minus 7.6 percentage points for independents.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Chris Jackson
Senior Vice President, US
Public Affairs
+1 202 420-2025
[email protected]

Annaleise Lohr
Director, US
Public Affairs
[email protected]

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