Storm clouds on the horizon

President Donald Trump’s approval rating is in an solid place.

Although it’s relatively low by historical standards, by Trump standards, this is within a typical range. Although Trump’s approval rating is nearing its lowest point of Trump’s second term, it still sits several points over where it was at this point of his first term.

Historical standards don’t really apply to Trump anyhow. If anything, Trump’s approval ratings may just be indicative of a new normal in U.S. politics, where high levels of polarization put a ceiling on Presidential approval ratings.

Trump’s approval rating has been anchored by his polarizing brand and loyal base. Low ceiling, high floor. This also means that holding onto the base is paramount for staying afloat.

But there are storm clouds on the horizon.

Below are five charts on where Trump’s approval rating stands now and the issues that Trump will have to weather to hold onto his approval ratings.

1. Holding steady. Trump’s approval rating has held roughly steady since his 100-day mark in office, sitting several percentage points above where he was in at this point in his first term. It’s not Trump’s best, but it’s not his worst.
2. Agenda in flux. The main issue has gone from the economy to political extremism and threats to democracy. In other words, the issue landscape is shifting from one in which Republicans have an advantage to an issue where both parties have roughly equal footing.
3. Looming tariffs. Trump put a pause on tariffs, but they now are becoming a reality. Right now, most Americans feel that tariffs could be beneficial for American jobs and industry in the long term. But more fear the potential short-term effects. For Trump, narrative discipline will be paramount, especially if tariffs begin to affect Americans’ material reality.
4. Economic anxiety. Consumer confidence surged among Americans under 35 after Trump’s November win. But in the months since, this has been on a steadily negative trend. There may be other factors contributing to this softening – such as partisanship, rising unemployment among young college graduates, and the threat of Artificial Intelligence-related job displacement – but ultimately, this could be a canary in the coal mine for Trump’s strength on the economy.
5. Negative anchor. The situation surrounding Jeffery Epstein is a negative anchor for Trump. Trump’s anti-establishment brand has come in direct odds with feelings of an orchestrated cover-up by elites. This issue is especially critical for Trump – it is the first time in Trump’s second administration where a majority of Republicans do not support Trump’s handling of an issue. So far, this hasn’t materially damaged Trump’s approval ratings, but Trump may not be able to afford to be at odds with his base for much longer.

There are storm clouds on the horizon.

A shifting issue landscape, looming tariffs, growing economic anxiety among younger Americans, and the Epstein issue are all issues that could spell trouble for the President.

Not that there’s any need to panic. Trump’s approval ratings right now are stable. And Trump’s base has stuck with him through thick and thin. Trump has weathered many a storm before.

But the storm clouds are here, nonetheless.