Trump guilty verdict makes minimal impact on public opinion

Washington, DC, June 2, 2024 -- The latest ABC News / Ipsos poll finds that by a 2 to 1 majority Americans believe the guilty verdict in the falsifying business records case against Donald Trump was correct. This survey, launched the Friday after the verdict was announced, sees a similar amount of Americans believe that Donald Trump should end his presidential campaign because of the verdict and that he intentionally did something illegal.

However, almost half of Americans also believe that the charges were politically motivated, and perceptions of Donald Trump (and Joe Biden) are statistically unchanged from before the verdict was announced, suggesting minimal changes in how Americans feel about the two presidential candidates.

Detailed Findings:

1. Americans broadly agree with the verdict, but a substantial number do not have an opinion.

• By a 50% (correct) to 27% (not correct) margin, Americans support the guilty verdict in the case of “falsifying business records regarding a payment made to Stormy Daniels before the 2016 election”. However, a quarter of Americans (23%) “don’t know” if the verdict was correct or not.
• Among the just over half (55%) of Americans who were following the case somewhat or very closely, a majority (57%) believes the verdict was correct with 35% saying not correct and 8% saying don’t know.

2. Half of Americans believe Trump should end his campaign because of the verdict, driven strongly by partisanship.

• Half (49%) say Trump should end his campaign, 37% say he should not, and 14% say they “don’t know”.
• Among Republicans, 16% say Trump should end his campaign and 75% say he should not. A majority of independents (52%) and Democrats (79%) say Trump should end his campaign.
• These figures are essentially unchanged from a similar question asked in April 2023, shortly after the indictment was filed, suggesting the verdict has prompted little change of opinion.

3. Despite the verdict, views of Donald Trump and Joe Biden appear fundamentally unchanged from before the verdict.

• Just under a third (31%) of Americans have a favorable opinion of Donald Trump, statistically unchanged from March 2024 when the number was 29%. Joe Biden also sees flat favorability numbers, with 32% now vs 33% in March.
• Potentially contributing to these static sentiments, half of Americans (47%) believe the charges against Trump were politically motivated, also essentially unchanged from 2023.

About the Study

This ABC News/Ipsos poll was conducted May 31 to June 1, 2024, by Ipsos using the probability-based KnowledgePanel^®. This poll is based on a nationally representative probability sample of 781 adults age 18 or older.

No respondents were removed from the final data for refusing all of the survey items.

The survey was conducted using KnowledgePanel, the largest and most well-established online probability-based panel that is representative of the adult US population. Our recruitment process employs a scientifically developed addressed-based sampling methodology using the latest Delivery Sequence File of the USPS – a database with full coverage of all delivery points in the US. Households invited to join the panel are randomly selected from all available households in the U.S. Persons in the sampled households are invited to join and participate in the panel. Those selected who do not already have internet access are provided a tablet and internet connection at no cost to the panel member. Those who join the panel and who are selected to participate in a survey are sent a unique password-protected log-in used to complete surveys online. As a result of our recruitment and sampling methodologies, samples from KnowledgePanel cover all households regardless of their phone or internet status and findings can be reported with a margin of sampling error and projected to the general population. KnowledgePanel members receive a per survey incentive, usually the equivalent of $1 (though for some it is $2) in points, that can be redeemed for cash or prizes. A prenotification email for this study was sent prior to field. Panelists receive a unique login to the survey and are only able to complete it one time. One reminder email was sent for this study.

The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.7 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, for results based on the entire sample of adults. The margin of sampling error takes into account the design effect, which was 1.10. The margin of sampling error is higher and varies for results based on sub-samples. Sampling error is only one potential source of error. There may be other unmeasured non-sampling error in this or any poll. In our reporting of the findings, percentage points are rounded off to the nearest whole number. As a result, percentages in a given table column may total slightly higher or lower than 100%. In questions that permit multiple responses, columns may total substantially more than 100%, depending on the number of different responses offered by each respondent.

The study was conducted in both English and Spanish. The data were weighted to adjust for gender by age, race/ethnicity, education, Census region, metropolitan status, household income, and party identification. The demographic benchmarks came from 2023 Current Population Survey (CPS) from the US Census Bureau. Party ID benchmarks are from the most recent ABC News/Ipsos poll. The weighting categories were as follows:

• Gender (Male, Female) by Age (18–29, 30–44, 45–59, and 60+)
• Race/Hispanic Ethnicity (White Non-Hispanic, Black Non-Hispanic, Other or 2+ Races Non-Hispanic, Hispanic)
• Education (High School graduate or less, Some College, Bachelor, Masters and beyond)
• Census Region (Northeast, Midwest, South, West)
• Metropolitan status (Metro, non-Metro)
• Household Income (Under $25,000, $25,000-$49,999, $50,000-$74,999, $75,000-$99,999, $100,000-$149,999, $150,000+)
• Party ID (Republican/lean Republican, Independent/Something else, Lean Democrat/Democrat)

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Chris Jackson
Senior Vice President, US
Public Affairs
+1 202 420-2025
[email protected]

Mallory Newall
Vice President, US
Public Affairs
+1 202 374-2613
[email protected]

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