U.S. consumer confidence has recovered more than half of its pandemic loss
Washington, DC, February 25, 2021 — Consumer confidence continues its upward trajectory in this week’s Ipsos-Forbes Advisor U.S. Consumer Confidence Tracker, rounding out a second week of steady gains. This week’s Consumer Confidence Index reads at 54.9, recording an increase of 1.5 points from last week.
The Expectations sub-index shows the most growth (+3.1 points), while the Jobs sub-index steadies after last week’s sudden 6.2-point leap. Gains in the Expectations sub-index are complemented by a growing belief that the economy will quickly rebound once coronavirus restrictions are lifted on businesses. This week, 61% of Americans say they foresee a swift economic recovery, up 6 points from the week prior.
Republicans see further gains in consumer confidence after a steep decline in sentiment following President Biden’s inauguration. Reading at 56.8, Republicans are now statistically on par with Democrats, who post a reading of 56.4 – the first time this has occurred since Biden took office. Independents trail both at 51.8.
Read the full story from Forbes Advisor here.
Learn more about the Ipsos Global Consumer Confidence Index and sub-indices via the interactive portal, Ipsos Consolidated Economic Indicators (IpsosGlobalIndicators.com) including graphic comparisons, trended data and all the questions on which they are based.
1. Scoring at 54.9, the latest overall Consumer Confidence has risen 1.5 points from last week.
- The Confidence index is at its highest level since the lockdowns of mid-March 2020. It is currently 4.9 points above the pandemic average, and 5.2 points lower than where it stood in early March (60.1).
- The index has now regained 9.8 points from its pandemic low of 45.1 in mid-April 2020, but it is still 8.5 points shy of its 19-year high of January 2020 of 63.4.
2. The Current sub-index experiences the greatest gains this week (+3.1 points), while the Current and Investment sub-indices post more muted growth (1.1 and 1.4 points, respectively).
3. Change in the Jobs sub-index levels off after last week’s 6.2-point gain, increasing just 0.9 point this week. Nonetheless, its current reading is its highest since the start of the pandemic.
- The proportion of Americans reporting they, a family member, or a personal acquaintance lost their job in the past six months due to economic conditions is at 39%, unchanged from last week.
- In addition, 41% say it’s likely they, a family member or a personal acquaintance will lose their job in the next six months due to economic conditions, down 5 points from last week and 10 points from two weeks prior.
4. A solid majority (61%) believe that the economy will quickly rebound when COVID restrictions are lifted on businesses, an increase of 6 points from last week.
5. Over half of Americans (54%) believe that the economy should be allowed to pick up even if the virus is not yet fully contained, an increase of 2 points from last week.
6. Purchasing confidence for both major items and other household items is up slightly.
- Compared to six months ago, 43% say they are more comfortable making a major purchase like a home or a car, up 3 points from last week.
Compared to six months ago, 47% say they are more comfortable making other household purchases than they were six months ago, up 1 point from last week.
The data used for the Consumer Confidence index and sub-indices is based on the following questions:
- Now, thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in US? Is it… very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad?
- Rate the current state of the economy in your local area using a scale from 1 to 7, where 7 means a very strong economy today and 1 means a very weak economy.
- Looking ahead six months from now, do you expect the economy in your local area to be much stronger, somewhat stronger, about the same, somewhat weaker, or much weaker than it is now?
- Rate your current financial situation, using a scale from 1 to 7, where 7 means your personal financial situation is very strong today and 1 means it is very weak
- Looking ahead six months from now, do you expect your personal financial situation to be much stronger, somewhat stronger, about the same, somewhat weaker, or much weaker than it is now?
- Compared to 6 months ago, are you NOW more or less comfortable making a major purchase, like a home or car?
- Compared to 6 months ago, are you NOW more or less comfortable making other household purchases?
- Compared to 6 months ago, are you NOW more or less confident about job security for yourself, your family and other people you know personally?
- Compared to 6 months ago, are you NOW more or less confident of your ability to invest in the future, including your ability to save money for your retirement or your children’s education?
- Thinking of the last 6 months, have you, someone in your family or someone else you know personally lost their job as a result of economic conditions?
- Now look ahead at the next six months. How likely is it that you, someone in your family or someone else you know personally will lose their job in the next six months as a result of economic conditions?
Q. To what extent do you agree with the each of the following
- The economy will recover quickly once the lockdown is over.
- We should restart the economy and allow businesses to open even if the virus is still not fully contained.
About the Study
These findings are based on data from an Ipsos survey conducted February 23-24, 2021 with a sample of 972 adults aged 18-74 from the continental U.S., Alaska and Hawaii who were interviewed online in English.
The sample was randomly drawn from Ipsos’ online panel, partner online panel sources, and “river” sampling and does not rely on a population frame in the traditional sense. Ipsos uses fixed sample targets, unique to each study, in drawing a sample. After a sample has been obtained from the Ipsos panel, Ipsos calibrates respondent characteristics to be representative of the U.S. Population using standard procedures such as raking-ratio adjustments. The source of these population targets is U.S. Census 2016 American Community Survey data. The sample drawn for this study reflects fixed sample targets on demographics. Post-hoc weights were made to the population characteristics on gender, age, race/ethnicity, region, and education.
Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online non-probability polls. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points for all respondents. Ipsos calculates a design effect (DEFF) for each study based on the variation of the weights, following the formula of Kish (1965). This study had a credibility interval adjusted for design effect of the following (n=972, DEFF=1.5, adjusted Confidence Interval=+/-5.1 percentage points).
Findings from March 2010 to early March 2020 are based on data from Refinitiv /Ipsos’ Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI) collected in a monthly survey on Ipsos’ Global Advisor online survey platform with the same questions. For the PCSI survey, Ipsos interviews a total of 1,000+ U.S. adults aged 18-74. The Refinitiv/Ipsos Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI), ongoing since 2010, is a monthly survey of consumer attitudes on the current and future state of local economies, personal finance situations, savings and confidence to make large investments. The PCSI metrics reported each month consist of a “Primary Index” based on 10 questions available upon request and of several “sub-indices” each based on a subset of these 10 questions. Those sub-indices include a Current Index, an Expectations Index, an Investment Index and a Jobs Index.
Findings for January 2002- February 2011 are based on data from the RBC CASH Index, a monthly telephone survey of 1,000 U.S. adults aged 18 and older conducted by Ipsos with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points.
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