U.S. consumer sentiment gains strength

Jobs confidence increases as fewer doubt a prompt recovery once COVID-control restrictions are relaxed

Washington, DC, February 18, 2021 — The Ipsos-Forbes Advisor U.S. Consumer Confidence Tracker is now reading at 53.4 as it gained 1.4 points since last week.

This increase is largely driven by gains in the Jobs sub-index, which surged 6.2 points. Indexing at 59.2, Jobs confidence is now at a pandemic high. Improved jobs sentiment comes as Americans report a greater sense of job security and reduced fears about future jobs losses.

Of note, fewer Americans doubt that the economy will recover quickly once restrictions to control the COVID-19 pandemic are relaxed: Only 37% disagree that this will be the case, down 5 percentage points from last week.

The Current, Expectations and Investment sub-indices show muted week-over-week changes as each of them has moved by less than 1 index point.

Republicans present some of the greatest gains in consumer confidence over the past week (+6.4 points), after a steep decline in the wake of President Biden’s inauguration. However, Republicans, currently indexing at 52.9, are still more pessimistic about the economy than Democrats, who index at 56.5.


Read the full story from Forbes Advisor here.

Learn more about the Ipsos Global Consumer Confidence Index and sub-indices via the interactive portal, Ipsos Consolidated Economic Indicators (IpsosGlobalIndicators.com) including graphic comparisons, trended data and all the questions on which they are based.


Detailed Findings

1. Scoring at 53.4, this week’s overall Consumer Confidence index rose 1.4 points from last week.

  • The Consumer Confidence index is currently 3.5 points above the pandemic average and 6.7 points lower than where it stood in early March (60.1).

Consumer Confidence

2. The Current sub-index sees slight movement, having increased by 0.5 point since last week. Both the Expectations and Investment sub-indices are also down by less than 1 point (-0.5 and -0.9 points, respectively).

Sub-indices

3. Jobs confidence has soared by 6.2 points since last week as 50% of those surveyed say that, compared to 6 months ago, they are now more confident about job security for themselves, their family, and personal acquaintances (up 5 points from last week). Reported jobs losses and concerns about future jobs losses declined as well.

  • The proportion of Americans reporting they, a family member, or a personal acquaintance lost their job in the past six months due to economic conditions is at 39%, down 10 points from last week.
  • In addition, 46% say it’s likely they, a family member or a personal acquaintance will lose their job in the next six months due to economic conditions, down 5 points from last week.

4. Americans show growing signs of confidence that the economy will recover quickly as restrictions to control the pandemic are relaxed as only 37% disagree (down 5 points from last week).

Recover quickly

5. More this week believe that businesses should be allowed to start up again (52%, up 4 points from last week), widening the gap with those who think the economy should remain on pause (43%).

Restart

6. Purchasing confidence for both major items and other household items decreased slightly.

  • Compared to six months ago, 40% say they are more comfortable making a major purchase like a home or a car, down 2 points from last week.

Major Purchase

  • Compared to six months ago, 46% say they are more comfortable making other household purchases than they were six months ago, down 3 points from last week.

Other Purchase

Questions

The data used for the Consumer Confidence index and sub-indices is based on the following questions:

  1. Now, thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in US? Is it… very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad?
  2. Rate the current state of the economy in your local area using a scale from 1 to 7, where 7 means a very strong economy today and 1 means a very weak economy.
  3. Looking ahead six months from now, do you expect the economy in your local area to be much stronger, somewhat stronger, about the same, somewhat weaker, or much weaker than it is now?
  4. Rate your current financial situation, using a scale from 1 to 7, where 7 means your personal financial situation is very strong today and 1 means it is very weak
  5. Looking ahead six months from now, do you expect your personal financial situation to be much stronger, somewhat stronger, about the same, somewhat weaker, or much weaker than it is now?
  6. Compared to 6 months ago, are you NOW more or less comfortable making a major purchase, like a home or car?
  7. Compared to 6 months ago, are you NOW more or less comfortable making other household purchases?
  8. Compared to 6 months ago, are you NOW more or less confident about job security for yourself, your family and other people you know personally?
  9. Compared to 6 months ago, are you NOW more or less confident of your ability to invest in the future, including your ability to save money for your retirement or your children’s education?
  10. Thinking of the last 6 months, have you, someone in your family or someone else you know personally lost their job as a result of economic conditions?
  11. Now look ahead at the next six months. How likely is it that you, someone in your family or someone else you know personally will lose their job in the next six months as a result of economic conditions?

Additional questions

Q. To what extent do you agree with the each of the following

  • The economy will recover quickly once the lockdown is over.
  • We should restart the economy and allow businesses to open even if the virus is still not fully contained.

About the Study

These findings are based on data from an Ipsos survey conducted February 16-17, 2021 with a sample of 964 adults aged 18-74 from the continental U.S., Alaska and Hawaii who were interviewed online in English.

The sample was randomly drawn from Ipsos’ online panel, partner online panel sources, and “river” sampling and does not rely on a population frame in the traditional sense. Ipsos uses fixed sample targets, unique to each study, in drawing a sample. After a sample has been obtained from the Ipsos panel, Ipsos calibrates respondent characteristics to be representative of the U.S. Population using standard procedures such as raking-ratio adjustments. The source of these population targets is U.S. Census 2016 American Community Survey data. The sample drawn for this study reflects fixed sample targets on demographics. Post-hoc weights were made to the population characteristics on gender, age, race/ethnicity, region, and education.

Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online non-probability polls. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points for all respondents. Ipsos calculates a design effect (DEFF) for each study based on the variation of the weights, following the formula of Kish (1965). This study had a credibility interval adjusted for design effect of the following (n=964, DEFF=1.5, adjusted Confidence Interval=+/-5.1 percentage points).

Findings from March 2010 to early March 2020 are based on data from Refinitiv /Ipsos’ Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI) collected in a monthly survey on Ipsos’ Global Advisor online survey platform with the same questions. For the PCSI survey, Ipsos interviews a total of 1,000+ U.S. adults aged 18-74. The Refinitiv/Ipsos Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI), ongoing since 2010, is a monthly survey of consumer attitudes on the current and future state of local economies, personal finance situations, savings and confidence to make large investments. The PCSI metrics reported each month consist of a “Primary Index” based on 10 questions available upon request and of several “sub-indices” each based on a subset of these 10 questions. Those sub-indices include a Current Index, an Expectations Index, an Investment Index and a Jobs Index.

Findings for January 2002- February 2011 are based on data from the RBC CASH Index, a monthly telephone survey of 1,000 U.S. adults aged 18 and older conducted by Ipsos with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Chris Jackson
Senior Vice President, U.S., Public Affairs
Ipsos
+1 202 420 2025
[email protected]

Kate Silverstein
Media Relations Specialist, U.S., Public Affairs
Ipsos
+1 718 755-8829
[email protected]

For more information on COVID-19 please click here

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