What to know heading into the 2024 Iowa Caucuses

Below are five charts showing how the Republican primary is shaping up entering the Iowa Caucuses and what it means for the broader presidential election

The author(s)
  • Clifford Young President, US, Public Affairs
  • Bernard Mendez Data Journalist, US, Public Affairs
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2024 just started, and election season is already underway.

It is the official kick off to election season. The Republican Iowa Caucus is on the 15th. Soon, we’ll have a concrete picture of how voters feel about the Republican candidate field.

What are important factors to keep an eye on heading into the election? Below are five charts showing how the Republican primary is shaping up entering the Iowa Caucuses and what it means for the broader presidential election.

  1. Lengthening lead. Last March, Trump was handed his first of several federal indictments. His then soft grip over the Republican candidacy clamped. Meanwhile, Ron DeSantis’ dramatic fade has been matched by a rising star in Nikki Haley. This is a battle for second.Chart
  2. Numeric advantage. Since last November, Trump has led in roughly every national Republican primary poll. Trump is undoubtedly the favorite.Chart
  3. Upset? The chances seem slim to none. Trump appears to have Iowa clamped down. But could New Hampshire be the needed spark Nikki Haley needs to set off a massive upset victory? Maybe not – early states aren’t everything in determining the eventual nominee. Hope springs eternal, but it looks like a Trump sweep.Chart
  4. What do Republican voters care about? More than anything, Republican voters worry about the economy and their personal economic situation. Crime and immigration are also high on the list. Who will be the Republican champion here? We will see.Chart
  5. Immigration. Anti-immigrant attitudes have become a central aspect of Republicanism. As the economy improves, immigration will move further to the forefront. Watch this space. Trump reigns supreme here.Chart

Success in Iowa and New Hampshire doesn’t give a candidate a straight line to the oval office. Similarly, failure isn’t damning. Trump, for example, lost the Iowa Caucus in 2016 before winning the presidency.

What makes these two contests worth paying attention to at all? If Trump can clinch them, we might be able to move on and think general election.

The author(s)
  • Clifford Young President, US, Public Affairs
  • Bernard Mendez Data Journalist, US, Public Affairs

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