What to make of last night’s State of the Union

In last night’s State of the Union Address, President Joe Biden never mentioned Trump by name. But that didn’t stop him from using the platform to make his pitch for his version of America over that of “his predecessor” in a State of the Union that perhaps more closely resembled a campaign speech.

After last night’s speech and with the Republican presidential primary all but wrapping up, it’s clear that the 2024 presidential election season is in full swing.

Below are five charts on how Americans view the major topics Biden discussed during the State of the Union address and how Biden lines up to “his predecessor” on each.

1. Beating the “Sleepy Joe” allegations? Come November, Biden will be 81, knocking on 82. Trump will be 78. Though a majority of Americans see both Biden and Trump as too old for another term, more see Biden as too old. Will a SOTU speech that was characterized as “fiery,” even “angry” according to Trump himself, be enough to convince any voters to overlook Biden’s age? Stay tuned.
2. Foreign policy. During his speech, Biden promised to send more weapons to Ukraine and reinforced calls for a ceasefire in Gaza. These policies would have backing among a majority of the American public. That said, Americans slightly favor Trump when it comes to handling both wars.
3. Immigration. Between an influx of immigrants at the border and the death of Laken Riley, immigration has been growing as a concern among Americans. It’s also one of Biden’s biggest weaknesses. Biden used the SOTU to implore Congress to pass a long-awaited border bill. That said, Americans still blame Biden for the bill failing, despite Trump being perhaps the primary reason Republicans shot the bill down.
4. Big reproductive right promises. Biden’s biggest promise last night may have been promising to restore Roe v. Wade “if Americans send me a Congress that supports the right to choose.” Biden also characterized the recent Alabama IVF ruling, which was unpopular among most Americans, as a side effect of “his predecessor” overturning Roe v. Wade. In the 2022 midterms, abortion was an outsized reason Americans voted. Will 2024 be the same?
5. It’s not the economy, stupid. The candidate who is strongest on the main issue wins an election roughly 85% of the time. Our recent polling suggests political extremism and threats to democracy is the main issue among Americans, an issue that would favor Biden. Will protecting democracy be the true underlying theme of the 2024 election? We will see.

Biden might be stronger among Americans who care about democracy and reproductive rights, but he faces an uphill battle when it comes to voters concerned about his age, the economy, foreign policy, and immigration.

Right now, most horserace polling suggests that the 2024 presidential election is roughly a dead heat. Most Americans believe that this election will mark a turning point in American history far more significant than we have seen in recent decades. Strap in for a wild ride.

Access more Ipsos research on this topic here.