Where Harris improves on Biden

The dust is still settling from the latest barrage of history-setting, election-rattling events – President Joe Biden’s widely criticized debate performance, the attempted assassination of Donald Trump, and Biden’s exit from the 2024 presidential race, to name a few.

Vice President Kamala Harris isn’t the official Democratic presidential nominee, but all signs are pointing to her taking Biden’s position on the Democratic ticket. Harris’ presidential campaign is still in a nascent stage, but the early signs seem promising. She’s raked in record fundraising, has the backing from most Democratic delegates needed for the nomination, and has secured a number of high-profile endorsements, including one from former President Barack Obama.

Below are five charts on how the presidential race has changed since Harris took over as the likely Democratic presidential candidate.

1. Still tied. Following Biden’s exit and Harris’ emergence, the 2024 race between Trump and Harris is a statistical tie; although, the aggregate suggests Trump is still ahead by a slight margin. The situation is unprecedented and changing. Voters have yet to acclimate to Harris as the face of a campaign; consider these numbers fluid.
2. Harris is better among key Democratic demographics. Though still in the early stages of her campaign, compared to Biden, Harris already seems to be performing better among minorities and younger cohorts, groups that were hit harder by inflation during Biden’s presidency. That said, younger Americans are historically low-turnout voters. Whether Harris can hold onto this advantage, turnout the Democrats’ 2020 base, and bring these voters out to the polls will be a key challenge for her campaign.
3. “Double haters” prefer Harris. Harris seems to be filling the void for voters who have been clamoring for an option that isn’t Trump or Biden. That said, there are fewer Americans that dislike both Trump and Harris. Is this election no longer a story of indifference?
4. Flipped the script on age. At 59 years old, Harris is seen as far better when it comes to questions about mental sharpness than the 81-year-old Biden. Trump, at 78, is now poised to be the oldest president at the time of his inauguration. Expect Democrats and the Harris campaign to go after Trump for his age.
5. Challenging position for a successor. Typically, Ipsos’ Base Rate Model gives an incumbent a 50/50 chance at reelection with a ~40% approval rating. But the same approval rating gives a successor about one in eight odds. A lot can change, and this isn’t a typical election scenario, but structurally, this may give Harris a steeper hill to climb. Watch this space.

The launch of Harris’ campaign seemed to flip the momentum in the 2024 race for the Oval Office. She’s been able to draw enthusiasm among key Democratic demographics, independents, and the most disenfranchised voters. Age is no longer a significant concern for Democrats – it’s an advantage.

That said, Harris’ campaign is still in its honeymoon stage. Republicans are just starting to reorient their attack strategy toward Harris. History also suggests that successors face an uphill battle toward election given the current administration’s approval rating.

But this election has been far been from conventional. In July alone, there have been two historical, highly unprecedented, and election-rattling events. There are 101 days until the November 5 election. Who knows what’s next.