Will the 2024 presidential election be 2020 all over again?

With President Joe Biden announcing his 2024 presidential campaign earlier this week, Americans are facing a similar sight: Biden and former President Donald Trump appear to be the most likely options to be the Democratic and Republican candidates, respectively, according to early polling.

Of course, it’s far too early to tell how the presidential candidate field will shape out. We still have to get through the primaries. But how would Americans feel seeing the same two people on the ballot box as they did in 2020?

Well, they aren’t ecstatic. Below are five charts on what the public thinks about Biden’s and Trump’s plans to run for president in 2024.

1. Repeat, no! Most think that Trump and Biden should not run for president again in 2024. Americans aren't interested in a 2020 sequel. Though, as of now, that's what it's shaping up to be. A lot can still happen, but Americans aren't enthusiastic about either leader. A pox on all your houses.
2. Trump 2.0. For Republicans, Trump is the runaway favorite in the GOP primary right now. Things could change. It is still early days. But, since his indictment, the former president has solidified his lead among his closest frontrunner, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who has yet to enter the race. The past is often the prologue.
3. Early Toss-up. It’s still very early, but as of now, the ballot is close. Trump gets Republicans closer to Biden than DeSantis does. That may be just as much a product of DeSantis’ lower name recognition as anything else. These numbers are just a snapshot of this moment in time. A lot can still happen. We will have to wait and see.
4. At the tipping point. President Biden remains in the low 40’s. His approval rating has not moved much since late 2021. It’s not a strong showing. He is right at a critical tipping point; dipping below 40% and his reelection bid begins to look grim, sitting at 40% gives him slightly better than a 50/50 chance of winning reelection given the current conditions.
5. Incumbent’s advantage. At a 40% approval rating—right where Biden is now—Biden’s re-election chances if the election were today would be slightly better than a coin-flip. It’s not a great place to be, but it could be worse. But, if Biden’s approval drops below this benchmark, he could have problems. Though Biden not running is far worse for Democrats; the odds for a successor candidate are not good. Analyzing Ipsos global elections data below is clear. It’s still early days, but the job approval figure is an important indicator to watch.

Americans aren’t so excited about the idea of a Trump vs. Biden 2024 presidential contest, but is there another way forward? The past few presidential elections have left Americans ever more divided. What’s in store for us in 2024? So far, it seems like we’re in for more of the same.