Will Americans accept the outcome of the 2024 election?

The 2020 election was marred by then-President Donald Trump’s claims that the election was rigged, the impacts of which have rocked Republicans’ trust in elections to this day. In 2016, claims of Russian interference had a similar impact on Democrats.

At a topline level, trust in elections has been relatively constant over the past two decades. However, election trust has become increasingly divided along party lines, and that remains the case as we head into the final stretch of the 2024 election.

Below are five charts on Americans’ confidence in elections, how past elections have affected trust in elections, and what that might mean this year.

1. Confidence in the election is highly partisan. Across partisanship, Americans say they are prepared to accept the outcome of this election. However, there’s a clear partisan split when it comes to trust that votes will be counted accurately. The seeds of mistrust have been planted.
2. Does the outcome of an election influence election trust? After Biden’s win in the 2020 election, confidence in elections flipped between Democrats and Republicans. These trends suggest that confidence in election results is at least partly based on which party wins the election. Could we see this flip again if Trump comes out on top?
3. Potential for legal challenges. As a whole, few Americans say they would support legal challenges or protest the results if their choice for president doesn’t win. Interestingly, the potential to support legal challenges isn’t exclusive to one side of the political aisle—similarly-sized minorities of both Republicans and Democrats say they would support legal challenges or protest the results of the election if their choice for president doesn’t win.
4. Misinformation season. Election misinformation seems to be a common theme in today’s political landscape. Case in point: Although instances of noncitizens voting in elections are extremely rare, that hasn’t stopped claims that illegal immigrants are voting in large numbers from spreading through the right-wing media ecosphere.
5. Will Trump accept the outcome? Trump didn’t win in 2020, and most Americans think he’s not prepared to accept the outcome in 2024. The opposite is true of Democratic nominee Kamala Harris. In the first presidential debate, Trump was hesitant to commit to accepting the outcome of the election. These waters remain murky.

Right now, both Republicans and Democrats say they are prepared to accept the outcome of the election. But from false claims that noncitizens are likely to vote to continued claims that the 2020 election was rigged, the seeds of election denial are being planted.

Republicans are more distrustful that the election will be fair. That said, if Democrats end up losing the election, don’t rule out a reversal in trust in elections.

A peaceful transfer of power is a cornerstone of American democracy. Can we expect that to happen in 2024? We will see.