2016-2017: The Year of Disruptive Elections - October 2016
Ipsos presented at the Embassy of the United States of America, in Paris, the climate of opinion before the presidential elections in France and in the US.
France
Pessimism, paradoxes and mood swings - The climate of opinion before the presidential election
- 86% of French people think that France is in decline...
- Unemployment is the primary concern for 48%
- 66% believe the situation will be worse for their children
- 88% think the country is going in the wrong direction
- 88% agree that « a true leader is needed to put things in order »
- 57% estimate there are now too many immigrants in the country
Only 5% of French people think that the economic situation of the country will improve over the next six months.
A look at 2017?
Voting intentions 1st round:
- Hypothesis 1: Candidate LR : Nicolas Sarkozy with François Bayrou without Emmanuel Macron
- Hypothesis 2: Candidate LR : Alain Juppé without François Bayrou without Emmanuel Macron
- Hypothesis 3: Candidate LR : Nicolas Sarkozy with François Bayrou with Emmanuel Macron
- Hypothesis 4: Candidate LR : Alain Juppé without François Bayrouwith Emmanuel Macron
US
‘America First’ and economic populism are on a rise.
This is a paradigm shift, discontinuity election.
Probably will be Hillary but will be much closer than pundits or markets really think
- Trump’s challenge is the electoral map
- Watch turnout!!!!
Effect on economic policy and business climate unclear:
- Trump: More nationalist on trade; conservative on fiscal policy and probably generally a loosening up on regulation
- Clinton: More of the same to Obama
