2016 US Elections - Clinton Leads by 9 Points to Trump’s (June 16)
Political Trends
In the wake of the Orlando attack, terrorism is back to the most mentioned problem facing America, tied with the economy this week. The increase in mentions for terrorism coincides with decreased mentions of immigration and healthcare as main issues.
Also potentially attributable to Orlando, the number of Americans saying the country is on the right track fell 4 points to 21% this week.
General Election Matchups
The general election race between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump is essentially unchanged. Clinton leads by 9 points, at 41% to Trump’s 32% among registered voters nationwide
- Trump’s performance among Republicans has worsened this week with him now holding the support of 68% of Republican registered voters, down from 71% last week;
- Clinton has held the same level of support among Democrats with 75%, slightly up from 74% last week.
General Election Matchups (NEW)
In our first publication of the 4-way ballot including Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Jill Stein, the overall picture is relatively similar to the 2-way ballot. Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump by 10 points among registered voters, 39% to 29%.
- The two third party candidates cumulatively attract the support of 10% of registered voters with Johnson at 6% and Stein at 4%;
- Inclusion of the third party candidates in the ballot appears to equally pull from support for Clinton and Trump with support for Clinton down 2 points, support for Trump down 3 and the undecided or other vote down 5 points.
Generic Congressional Ballot (NEW)
In our first publication of our generic congressional ballot question, Democrats hold a sizable advantage nationwide at 44% to 33%. Keep in mind that national vote share does not correspond to success at the district level due to how districts are drawn but this question should be a useful barometer for tracking support levels nationwide
