2016 US Elections - What Are The effects of Trump’s “Hot Mike” Incident? (October 19)
Three weeks out from election day the Reuters/Ipsos poll finds Clinton’s bump from the last week or so receding just in time for the third debate. The effects of Trump’s “hot mike” incident and second debate performance appear to have subsided somewhat, and the election has reverted back to pre-debate levels.
General Election Trends
Hillary Clinton continues to lead Donald Trump among likely voters, though her lead has shrunk to 4 percentage points, with Clinton at 43% to Trump at 39%.
- Nearly a fifth of likely voters continue to support alternatives to the major two candidates with 18% saying they will vote third party (8%), would not vote (3%) or don’t know (7%).
- Clinton maintains a similar lead amongst likely voters on the 4-way ballot with the same 4 percentage point margin, which includes Gary Johnson and Jill Stein (Clinton 42%; Trump 38%; Johnson 6%; and Stein 2%).
Clinton’s favorability holds relatively steady with 49% amongst registered voters, while Trump’s favorability score has also held steady at 42%.
Other trends
The general economy and terrorism continue to be tied for the most serious problem facing the United States, with one-fifth of Americans citing each as a top threat.
President Barack Obama’s approval rating among all Americans also remains relatively stead over the course of the last week and stands at 51%.
In our generic congressional ballot question, Democrats saw their lead shrink slightly with 43% of likely voters saying that they’ll vote for a Democratic candidate vs 39% saying that they’ll vote for a Republican candidate.
These are findings from an Ipsos poll conducted for Thomson Reuters October 13-17, 2016. For the survey, a sample of 1,750 Americans ages 18+ were interviewed online.
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