2016 US Pre-Elections - Clinton Has a 90% Chance of Winning (November 7)

Public Sector

Our last pre-election poll shows Hillary Clinton building back some of the lead lost in the wake of Comey’s initial letter to Congress. This data paired with the state-level data from our final States of the Nation poll mean we put Clinton’s odds at 90% of winning the White House tomorrow.

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The author(s)
  • Chris Jackson Senior Vice President, Public Affairs, US
  • Clifford Young President, Public Affairs, USA
  • Julia Clark Marketing & Communications Director, NA
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Ipsos Election Forecast

PRESIDENT: Ipsos’ forecast is that Clinton has a 90% chance of winning the Presidency

  • SENATE: Ipsos’ forecast is that the Democrats have a small odds-edge of taking the Senate at 55%
  • HOUSE: Ipsos’ forecast is that the Republicans have 70% odds of holding onto the House of Representatives

 

General Election Matchup

Hillary Clinton continues to lead Donald Trump among likely voters with a current lead of 5 percentage points. Clinton holds 44% of likely voters while Trump is at 39%.

  • Clinton’s lead holds a smaller lead among likely voters on the 4-way ballot with a 3 percentage point margin, which includes Gary Johnson and Jill Stein (Clinton 42%; Trump 39%; Johnson 6%; and Stein 3%).
  • Clinton’s favorability among registered voters is down to 49%.

 

Trump’s favorability scores are also steady at 43%.

 

These are findings from an Ipsos poll conducted for Thomson Reuters November 2- November 6, 2016. For the survey, a sample of 3,198 Americans, ages 18+ were interviewed online. 
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The author(s)
  • Chris Jackson Senior Vice President, Public Affairs, US
  • Clifford Young President, Public Affairs, USA
  • Julia Clark Marketing & Communications Director, NA

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