As 2019 Kicks In, Consumer Confidence Soars in Brazil and Mexico while Dipping in China, Turkey and France

Month-over-Month Uptick Too Small to Buck a Downward Trend

The author(s)

  • Nicolas Boyon Public Affairs, US
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New York, January 24, 2019 At 49.9, Ipsos’s Global Consumer Confidence Index for January 2019 is up 0.3 point over last month’s reading. However, the small uptick in the 24-country index is not sufficient to buck a declining trend as it remains 0.4 points below its level of October 2018. While consumer confidence is rebounding in several countries, it is receding or stagnating in most of the world’s largest economies. The Consumer Confidence Index, also called the “National Index”, reflects consumer attitudes on the current and future state of their local economy, their personal finance situations, their savings and their confidence to make large investments.

  • Typical of countries that recently elected a new president, Brazil (+8.7 points over the past three months) and Mexico (+4.4) show steep gains in their National Index. Other countries recording significant gains are Saudi Arabia (+3.9), Argentina (+2.6), and South Africa (+1.9).
  • In contrast, six countries have seen their National Index drop strongly that same period: China (-5.4 points), Turkey (-4.3), France (-3.6), Russia (-3.5), South Korea (-2.3), and Belgium (-1.5). The United States shows a smaller decrease (1.0 point), bringing its National Index back to its level of July 2018.
  • While lower than at any point in the past six months, China’s National Index of 70.2 remains the highest of all 24 countries surveyed. Countries showing the next highest levels of consumer confidence are Saudi Arabia (63.6), India (63.0), the United States (61.7), and Sweden (60.1).
  • At the other end of the spectrum, the countries with the lowest levels of consumer confidence are Turkey (32.2), Argentina (38.7), Russia (38.7), and France (39.1).

Consumer Global Index 2019

 

 

About the Study: 
These findings are based on data from Refinitiv/Ipsos’ Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI) collected in a monthly survey of consumers from 24 countries via Ipsos’ Global @dvisor online survey platform. For this survey, Ipsos interviews a total of 17,500+ adults aged 18-64 in the United States of America, Canada, and Israel, and age 16-64 in all 21 other countries each month. The monthly sample consists of 1,000+ individuals in each of Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, Great Britain and the USA, and 500+ individuals in each of Argentina, Belgium, Hungary, India, Israel, Mexico, Poland, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Sweden and Turkey. The most recent Global Advisor fieldwork periods were December 21, 2018 – January 9, 2019 (“January 2019” wave), November 23 – December 7, 2018 (“December 2018” wave) and October 26 – November 9, 2018 (“November 2018” wave) .

Data collected each month are weighted so that each country’s sample composition best reflects the demographic profile of the adult population according to the country’s most recent census data. Data collected each month are also weighted to give each country an equal weight in the total “global” sample. Online surveys can be taken as representative of the general working age population in Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, Italy, Japan, Poland, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, and the United States. Online samples in Brazil, China, India, Israel, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and Turkey are more urban, more educated and/or more affluent than the general population and the results should be viewed as reflecting the views of a more “connected” population.

The Refinitiv/Ipsos Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI), ongoing since 2010, is a monthly survey of consumer attitudes on the current and future state of local economies, personal finance situations, savings and confidence to make large investments. The key metrics consist of a primary or “National Index” based on all 11 questions below and of several “sub-indices” each based on a subset of these 11 questions. Unlike, PCSI, the Ipsos Global Consumer Index and sub-indices reported here are calibrated. They are based in part on data collected reported that given month and in part on data collected during the two previous months. In other words, they are three-month “rolling averages”. This technique allows for tripling the sample size for each metric. Hence, the monthly base for any index in any country ranges from 1,500+ to 3,000+. This increases the reliability of the findings and the statistical significance of reported variations over time, However, to heighten the freshness of the findings reported any given month, the data from the same month is given a weight of 45%, the data from the previous month a lesser weight of 35%, and the data from the earliest of the three months an even lesser weight of 20%.

The author(s)

  • Nicolas Boyon Public Affairs, US

Consumer & Shopper