Australian Federal Election Results

The Labor Party remains just ahead of the Coalition in the final Fairfax Ipsos Election Poll released today.

 

The national poll of 1,377 enrolled Australians who are certain to vote in tomorrow’s Federal Election, interviewed from Sunday 26 – Wednesday 29 June 2016, shows the Labor Party with 51% of the two party vote (unchanged since 14-16 June), ahead of the Coalition 49% (unchanged since 14-16 June), based on stated preferences.

 

The two-party vote, based on 2013 election preferences shows both Labor and the Coalition at 50% (Labor down 1 point and Coalition up 1 point since 14-16 June).

 

“This indicates a 3.5% swing against the Coalition Government since the September 2013 Federal election,” Ipsos Director Jessica Elgood said.

 

“A uniform national swing of this magnitude would produce a hung parliament, with neither of the major parties holding a working majority. However, swings will vary considerably between seats, and support for minor parties and independents, and their preference flows, will be crucial in deciding the outcome.”

 

First preference votes put the Labor Party on 33% (unchanged since 14-16 June) and the Coalition on 40% (up 1 point since 14-16 June). The Greens’ share of the vote is 13% (down 1 point since 14-16 June).

 

The Nick Xenophon Team is on 2%, and other parties are on 12%.

 

(Note: all figures are based on those enrolled and certain to vote).

 

Key findings

• Leaders’ approval ratings: Malcolm Turnbull’s approval at 49% (up 2 points since 14-16 June), disapproval at 41% (down 1 point since 14-16 June), net approval of +8 (up 3 points since 14-16 June). Bill Shorten’s approval rating at 42% (down 1 point since 14-16 June), disapproval rating at 50% (up 3 points since 14-16 June), net approval at -8 (down 4 points since 14-16 June).
• Preferred Prime Minister: 49% would prefer Malcolm Turnbull as Prime Minister (up 1 point since 14-16 June); 35% would prefer Bill Shorten (up 1 point since 14-16 June).
• Who will win the election: 61% believe that the Coalition will win the Federal Election (up 7 points since 14-16 June).

 

Leaders’ approval and preferred Prime Minister

 

Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating is 49% (up 2 points since 14-16 June), and his disapproval rating is 41% (down 1 point since 14-16 June). This gives a net approval of +8 (up 3 points since 14-16 June).

 

The table below shows Malcolm Turnbull’s ratings compared to those of the majority of other Prime Ministers at the same point in a Federal Election campaign. Turnbull’s ratings are comparable with those of Gillard prior to the 2010 election that resulted in the first hung parliament since 1940.

 

Comparing PM approval ratings during Federal election campaigns:

 

Bill Shorten’s approval rating is 42% (down 1 point since 14-16 June). His disapproval rating is 50% (up 3 points since 14-16 June). This gives a net approval of -8 (down 4 points since 14-16 June). This is the worst approval rating of any Opposition Leader this century, in the last few days of a Federal Election campaign.

 

Comparing Opposition Leader approval ratings during Federal election campaigns:

 

Malcolm Turnbull remains the referred Prime Minister, at 49%, a rise of 1 point since 14-16 June. Thirtyfive per cent favour Bill Shorten as Prime Minister (a rise of 1 point since 14-16 June). This gives a lead of +14 to Malcolm Turnbull, unchanged from the last poll (14-16 June).

 

Comparing preferred PM figures during Federal election campaigns:

 

After a long election campaign, 16% still give an ‘uncommitted’ response to who would be their preferred Prime Minister (down 2 points since 14-16 June).

 

Who will win?

 

As we head to polling day, three in five of the public believe that the Coalition will win this election, at 61% (up 7 points since 14-16 June); only 17% believe that the Labor Party will win (down 9 points since 14-16 June). Even among those intending to vote Labor, almost half (47%) think the Coalition will win.

 

 

 

Poll Profile

Fieldwork dates: 26-29 June 2016
Sample size: 1,377 respondents
Sample: National, aged 18+, enrolled and certain to vote. 30% of sample comprised mobile phone numbers.
Method: Telephone, using random digit dialling.
Statistical reliability: ±2.6% is the maximum margin of sampling error that might apply to this sample
Analysis: The data has been weighted to reflect the population distribution.