Brazil Pulse - The Disapproval For Acting President Michel Temer Grows - July 2016
Temer's administration is regarded as bad or very bad for 48% of the population - worsening 5% vis-à-vis the month of June. Other evaluation indicators show significant deterioration. As Dilma’s trial by the Senate approaches, the disapproval for acting President Michel Temer grows. Dilma’s approval grows for the fourth consecutive month. Consumer confidence index drops 2 points, putting an end to three months of gradual increase. It is the first drop of the index for Temer’s administration. There is a growing sense of concern about the Brazilian future.
Context
For Brazilians, the country is still in the wrong direction.
In July, Brazil’s direction was considered wrong by 89% of people, the same index as the previous month - the growing negative perception of the country’s direction gained strength after the 2014 elections and did not stop growing; it stagnated at a very high level even with the change in Government.
The explanation lies on the high levels of unemployment and the purchasing power loss due to high inflation - among other social problems such as corruption, violence and the inefficiency of public services (mostly noticeable in education and health systems). In other words, the evaluation of the country’s direction is not necessarily tied to a politician or to the party of the occasion; it is actually tied to the general state of dissatisfaction that - as our researches have shown - has made Brazilians concerned about the future of the country.
This scenario will be reverted in a gradual manner; most expressive results will only be seen as from 2017, after the impeachment process consolidation, which should ‘allow’ Temer's administration (should he be confirmed in Office) to take more unpopular measures toward eventual structural reforms – especially regarding labor and welfare reforms.
Evaluation of Temer’s administration worsened in July.
In July, the Temer’s administration was considered bad or very bad by 48% of Brazilians (compared to 43% in June) and 16% by those who did not know/ did not answer, against 22% in June. In other words: during the last month there was a migration of those who had no opinion about his administration to the group of those who evaluated him negatively.
Pulso Brasil data shows that the public opinion disapproves of his overall administration, more strongly in key areas for the country, as fighting inflation and unemployment, for example.
However, Temer has the benefit of the doubt, since he did not undergo an electoral process, didn't raise expectations of the population, and along with the high rejection levels of Dilma’s administration they all could benefit him - that is if he is able to send clear messages of changes and create positive expectations. To his favor he has the forecast of the economic gradual retake foreseen by the market for 2017. However, Temer and his popularity ratings will need to survive the Olympic games, municipal elections and the suspended President’s impeachment process by the Senate that will be carried out during the second semester.
Political barometer
Change expectations.
The Political Barometer indicators of President Michel Temer demonstrate to be stable in July and remain highly negative.
It is true that there was a 4% gain in the approval index in class DE, precisely where the President holds low popularity. This result could be the reflex of some government initiatives toward the lower ranks, but this trend can only be confirmed over the next few months.
At the same time, Dilma Rousseff sees her disapproval index drop for the fourth following month, while her approval gradually rises. However, both her and the acting President have similar disapproval rates and extremely negative (at 70%), a result of the rejection to politicians and parties in general.
Not for nothing, 52% of the population would like to see new elections in October. Even if this move is unlikely, this desire reflects the need for changes that is expected by the public opinion regarding the country - the same ones who see Brazil in the wrong direction for two years and who demonstrates increasing concern with the current context of uncertainty, unemployment and consumption power retraction.
Economic context
The retake of consumer confidence is slightly shaken.
The domestic Consumer Confidence Index dropped 2 points in June. It was the first retraction of the index during the administration of acting President Michel Temer.
If on the one hand class AB confidence index suffered no oscillation, on the other class DE had an increase of 4 points (the same increase obtained by Temer in the Political Barometer approval ratings). It is noteworthy that class C presented a drop of 5 points in June, reflecting inflation and unemployment that deeply hit the middle class, affecting its financial stability and purchasing power.
The feeling of the population regarding Brazil’s future is of concern, and increased 9% from April (48% felt concerned) to July (57%).
Data analysis of Pulso Brasil and the economic scenario leads us to believe that the retake of confidence will go on increasing gradually along with the retake of the GDP and inflation control - that should already present less negative signs as from 2017.
