Brazil Pulse - Michel Temer’s Administration Is Evaluated As Bad - June 2016

Temer’s administration is evaluated as bad/very bad by 43% of the population. Currently there are still doubts regarding the efficiency of his Government for these first months. Michel Temer sees his disapproval gradually increase in classes C, D and E, while his approval grows in classes AB. Economic and social agendas are decisive in this scenario. Consumer Confidence Index grows 4 points and seems to confirm gradual growing tendency. Classes AB and the Southeast region presented higher growth during the month of June.

The author(s)

  • Tamires Fauoaz Ipsos Public Affairs, Brazil
  • Luiza Oliveira Ipsos Public Affairs, Brazil
  • Priscilla Branco Public Affairs, Brazil
  • Danilo Cersosimo Ipsos Public Affairs, Brazil
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Brazil goes on awaiting the outcome of the impeachment process trial amidst the ‘Lava Jato’ investigation - which has reached out all the way to important names of Temer’s administration.

 

Context

For the Brazilians, the country is still in the wrong direction.

The change of Government brought no changes regarding the improvement perception concerning the country’s direction.

 

In June, the direction Brazil was heading to was considered wrong for 89% of the people, against 88% in May. The permanence of this perception reflects the general dissatisfaction of Brazilians with the country and with the political class, which at the moment goes beyond the ruler. In addition, as the Pulse Brazil data reveals, this negative scenario is the result of the current political and economic instability, the unemployment and inflation.

 

The first evaluation of Michel Temer’s interim administration points to negative indicators and reveals uncertainties.

The evaluation of the Temer’s administration is divided between those who consider it bad or very bad (43%) and those who do not have a set opinion (22% of Brazilians did not know how to evaluate the current administration and another 29% consider it regular). Only 6% consider the current government good or very good.

 

The current interim President didn't undergo an electoral process, therefore he is not strongly associated with a Government agenda or with causes that have a strong appeal to the public. His administration does not even carry an appeal to fight corruption, as a counterpoint to the image of his predecessor, strongly associated with the scandals evidenced by the ‘Lava Jato’, according to the public opinion perspective.

 

Political barometer

Michel Temer: a matter of class?

So far Temer’s approval is higher among classes AB and has increasingly grown since February to date.

 

It is important to note that classes AB were the ones that most saw the Consumer Confidence Index plummet in the last 2 years and reached 49 points in April this year - the lowest considering the historical series. The Confidence retake of this portion of the population is significantly higher than in others; the growing approval for Temer’s performance can be interpreted as a sign of support to the current Government's team and economic agenda, and also reflects the rejection that much of this segment has to Dilma Rousseff’s and the PT’s (Partido dos Trabalhadores) administration.

 

The opposite effect is detected among classes CDE, where the disapproval of Temer has been increasing - especially from April onwards, when the impeachment of the suspended President Dilma Rousseff took shape. The challenge of the current Government is to establish an agenda that will convey security to the less privileged sectors of the population in order to gain confidence from classes CDE.

 

Economic context

The tenuous and gradual retake of consumer confidence remains.

The Domestic Consumer Confidence Index for the second consecutive month presented a growing tendency. This growth is most significantly sustained by classes AB and by the South and Southeast regions; it is the combination of the support to President Dilma’s stepping down (they were the most favorable segments for the impeachment) and Government Temer’s performance approval.

 

Analyzing in perspective, consumer confidence will only return to the old days’ positive levels if the confidence indicators of employment, of medium/large purchases and investment for the future resume growth - which still has not occurred. Reassuming confidence at this point is linked to a less pragmatic indicator, which is the evaluation of the region's economy today and in the next six months, and that receives strong influence of the results in the South and Southeast regions.

The author(s)

  • Tamires Fauoaz Ipsos Public Affairs, Brazil
  • Luiza Oliveira Ipsos Public Affairs, Brazil
  • Priscilla Branco Public Affairs, Brazil
  • Danilo Cersosimo Ipsos Public Affairs, Brazil

Society