Editorial
There will be no such thing as the "World After Covid"
Some intellectuals hoped for, or imagined, a revolution in 2020, with consumer-citizens resolutely committing to degrowth, de-consumption and de-globalisation, focusing on their carbon footprint and personal impact on the planet in support of a philosophy championed by Greta Thunberg. However, independently of the personal tragedies, Covid-19 has been infinitely less devastating than major pandemics of the past like the Black Death, or the Spanish Flu epidemic and its fifty million victims one hundred years ago.
On the other hand, with the recurrence of new waves of the virus, the administration of third and fourth doses of a vaccine, and the prospect of a booster every six months in the future, like the flu the virus is now firmly established in the landscape. We are now getting used to living in a kind of permanent sanitary bubble, adapting our habits and behaviours in order to live as we did before.
We can connect this observation to the fact that, regardless of the impacts crisis situations (e.g., pandemics, wars, natural disasters) have, the human tendency is to constantly seek improvements to our material wellbeing and personal situation, moving as we have through history from the cave to the most sumptuous shopping mall, with resilience and the desire to move forward.
The overwhelming priority given to economic recovery and growth, along with global vaccination, at the country level is the demonstration of the power of this individual trend.
Covid-19 has accelerated transformations
As constraints such as confinements, curfews and the closing non-essential stores were imposed by public health orders, the presence of technology in our lives experienced an unprecedented boom. The acceleration of remote working, telemedicine, eCommerce, and streaming services prompted new trade-off and spending shifts. Going to the cinema became buying a bigger TV. Going to a restaurant turned into cooking at home. Life in a big city was traded for moving to the countryside.
These transformations are underway but will be subject to further shifts. Which will be abandoned? Which have led to the discovery of other possibilities and will be adopted in the long term? What is the impact on different sectors? For example, we can see, that eCommerce is not such an exciting prospect, especially to younger generations, which may seem counter-intuitive: 36% of French people aged under 34 find online purchases “more complicated than shopping in traditional stores”. Another question, most relevant for the richest individuals: why leave your home when you have the money and the space to bring in the experiences that before the crisis you had outside?
The third thing to remember is that the inequalities revealed by the crisis are long-lasting and will be accentuated by inflation.
We have seen the real state of the health system and our infrastructure, our lack of preparedness, and the disparities in social class along the lines of homeownership and access to facilities. In today’s context, we must remember that the world “before” was that of the gilets jaunes and "French fractures".
Since then, the price of bread, gas and electricity, stamps, and fuel, affected by a context of rising inflation, has meant increasing the share of constrained expenditure and tackling basic needs: to be fed, to be more comfortable, to communicate, to move. On a global scale, things are not likely to get better for economies that remain highly interdependent, due to tariff and trade wars, supply chain challenges in accessing raw materials as well as dealing with waste and decreasing volumes. What will be the results? Most likely, rising costs of goods, more expensive services for consumers, and exacerbated inequalities.
What happens next will be determined by the lessons learnt from Covid… or not
Either the Covid-19 pandemic is like an electric shock, alerting us suddenly to the need to be ready to face other phenomena on the horizon such as ageing populations, the climate emergency, migration, the impact of automation on work, artificial intelligence, and the worsening of disparities. Our awareness of what is coming makes it possible to act now.
Or, alternatively, it turns out to be a missed opportunity, and the world will remain dependent on other crises; social, health or climatic. Countries will manage these themselves to different degrees of success, resulting in a gap between winners and losers. There will be real differences in values between generations and social tension among populations frustrated to see that no structural change is yet manifesting in the post-pandemic world, despite their dream of another world.
The management of the health crisis finally questions the notion of ‘promise’
After so many stop-start scenarios, contradictions, and cognitive dissonances linked to the management of the Covid-19 crisis, how is it possible to be credible?
On 24 December 2021, Netflix released the film “Don’t Look Up”, directed by Adam McKay featuring Meryl Streep, Leonardo DiCaprio and Jennifer Lawrence. In the film, two astronomers discover a giant comet heading towards Earth and threatening to destroy it. Despite sharing these findings, nobody believes them. The scientific community is divided, and everyone spreads theories and rhetoric, including the President of the United States, until the time that the catastrophe strikes. Of course, as the film remarks "any resemblance with people or situations that exist or have existed can only be coincidental”.
Perhaps it is easier for brands than politicians to be credible. Without giving grandiose speeches about solidarity, they have transformed production chains to supply newly essential products to those on the front line of the pandemic. They can change wording on their packaging, choose purposeful messaging, innovate, and immediately demonstrate their societal or environmental commitments. Politicians need arguments, proof, and above all, time. Are consumer-citizens ready to give it to them?
We have entered a world of immediacy that has been developing for years (from 3G to 4G, to 5G…, algorithms, AI, the metaverse), ever more connected, ever more omnichannel. The incorporation of digital technologies into daily life has been further baked in with the remote solutions discovered during Covid isolation.
The question of promises, the acceleration of transformations, action and time takes on particular importance this year with the French Presidential election.
Admittedly, many French people believe that it would have been difficult for the government to have done any better: the billions of euros paid under the principle "whatever the cost" saved the economy and unemployment did not skyrocket as we might have feared. But it will be difficult to speak to the majority of the public which remains defiant and tormented by the question of purchasing power and its future, and to promise the people radiant skies and new dawns as they wait eagerly for results and proof.
Trust has not emerged intact from the crisis. Since 2019, the Ipsos Global Trustworthiness Monitor measures levels of trust in 29 countries. The latest edition reveals that only 14% of French people think that the government does what it says (vs. 20%, global country average) and only 16% believe that the media are reliable (vs. 24% on average). These are interesting figures during an election year where three segments of the public are emerging: the ‘Legitimists’ (attached to democracy and citizenship), who have the choice between Emmanuel Macron, Anne Hidalgo, Valérie Pécresse and Yannick Jadot), the ‘Abstainers’ who will pass their turn or do not recognise anything in the offer, and the ‘Anti-System’, among those who did not vote in previous ballots but come to vote against the incarnations of the "System" and prefer Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Marie Le Pen, or Yannick Zemmour.
Each of these audiences will need certainties, hence our title for the 2022 edition of Ipsos Flair France: is it “The End of Promises?”.
Table of content
- Editorial
- Point of View
- How to define 2021
- What does 2022 portend?
- Media consumption: The crisis has boosted audiences and gaming
- Environment: The state of emergency is accelerating
- Food, revealing trends
- The new "eating well", a pleasure for the sake of health
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